Allocate Slug's Roth

**jIM_Ohio** · 03-05-2008, 12:15 PM

what is the xray and asset class of each holding?

**Scanner** · 03-05-2008, 12:32 PM

Well, you are too high cash for a 20-30 year horizon.

What is your account balance in your Roth? My formula tends to run on how much you are dealing with.

I don't see any real estate or commodities either.

I tend to recommend simple, equal mixes - 50/50, 33/33/33, 25/25/25/25/, or 20/20/20/20/20

I don't like to go over 5 sectors. . .to me. . .if you need to control volatility (like in the case of my kids college funds), then you need bonds. Bonds are boring but to me, the most effective for controling volatility.

Here are my "watches":

ICF
GAAEX
GEX
USO

If oil drops here in the next 90 days, I'd add USO to your portfolio, if oil hits around $65/barrel.

I wouldn't mind recommending silver (SLV) but I would have to concede, there's been a big run-up already (52% in 13 months). . .it could correct although now the word is there is a "short squeeze" going on (which could further drive up prices).

You have to think nothing but long term on silver (except I admit, I watch mine daily

)

**Slug** · 03-05-2008, 12:47 PM

Xray appears to be a premium feature at Morningstar. I don't have premium access.

Oh wait, if I enter it all for a one time look it lets me.

Looks to be over weight in large caps (80%) and split pretty evenly across US and international with international being heavy towards Latin America where Chavez appears ready to make war...

What's your question again?

**Slug** · 03-05-2008, 12:49 PM

GEX is on the short list.

**sweeps** · 03-05-2008, 01:28 PM

Sell everything and go all in on SPPIX and SNPIX.

**jIM_Ohio** · 03-05-2008, 08:59 PM

Originally posted by Slug View Post

Xray appears to be a premium feature at Morningstar. I don't have premium access.

Oh wait, if I enter it all for a one time look it lets me.

Looks to be over weight in large caps (80%) and split pretty evenly across US and international with international being heavy towards Latin America where Chavez appears ready to make war...

What's your question again?

80% large caps is a huge bet, but that also means small caps must be getting short changed. 40% international is OK, maybe too much currency risk (as the dollar is weak now, a stronger dollar will lower your returns).

I would first decide an asset allocation
% large caps domestic
% mid caps
% small caps domestic
% large caps foreign
% small caps foreign
% commodities
% bonds
% cash

make sure those numbers add up to 100%

Then choose ETFs which fit those choices. I'm not an ETF guy, so can't help with specifics- if you tell me the asset classes of each ETF listed, that would be a start, but without an allocation to place them in, it's like pissing into the wind.

**Slug** · 03-06-2008, 06:46 AM

Originally posted by sweeps View Post

Sell everything and go all in on SPPIX and SNPIX.

Now that's a contrarian bet. Shorting precious metals and oil. Honestly, adding these could create a more market neutral portfolio.

Do you think what Chavez is doing in Venezuela will have any impact on oil volatility?

**sweeps** · 03-06-2008, 07:08 AM

I was exaggerating obviously, but silver, gold, and oil are in a very speculative bubble. Once the pros start jumping ship watch those prices tumble. Last one out is a rotten egg.

At some point people are going to look at those shiny yellow coins they're holding and realize, what are these things doing for me?

Chavez? All talk and no action. These things happen during a bubble. People work themselves into a frenzy over every little story and blow it out of proportion.

**Scanner** · 03-06-2008, 07:18 AM

Don't worry about the bubble, allocate as you see fit. People also said in 1994, the S&P was in a bubble and they had record runs the years after while some sat on the sidelines.

You can always put stop orders in if you feel the bubble will burst so you aren't the "rotten egg." Diversify - you know that of course.

I put mine in 16% above what I bought it at. . .I am thus guaranteed a 16% return. In another year, I'll add another 16% to the share price.

I feel 16% is fair for the risk incurred.

**Slug** · 03-06-2008, 10:00 AM

Originally posted by Scanner View Post

Don't worry about the bubble, allocate as you see fit. People also said in 1994, the S&P was in a bubble and they had record runs the years after while some sat on the sidelines.

You can always put stop orders in if you feel the bubble will burst so you aren't the "rotten egg." Diversify - you know that of course.

I put mine in 16% above what I bought it at. . .I am thus guaranteed a 16% return. In another year, I'll add another 16% to the share price.

I feel 16% is fair for the risk incurred.

So, if you're not gettin 16%, you dump? Does that include dividends?

**Scanner** · 03-06-2008, 10:34 AM

So, if you're not gettin 16%, you dump? Does that include dividends?

I haven't really thought about too much since I haven't activated any stop orders but the way I see it, you have 2 choices:

1. Sit in cash, let it drop some more, try to time, and get back in. Perhaps put a "put order" in (is that what it is called?)

2. Switch to another industry to remain diversified (financials, real estate)

I'd probably opt for #2.

**Scanner** · 03-06-2008, 10:35 AM

BTW, the only problem with my strategy is, you could buy anything (SPY, commodity, real estate) and it doesn't go up 16%.

So, you can't lock in gains if you don't get them. . .you however could still decide what loss you would tolerate and either:

1. Stop loss

2. Buy more of the declining asset

**Slug** · 03-06-2008, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by Scanner View Post

I haven't really thought about too much since I haven't activated any stop orders but the way I see it, you have 2 choices:

1. Sit in cash, let it drop some more, try to time, and get back in. Perhaps put a "put order" in (is that what it is called?)

I think you just mean a limit order. Puts and calls are both types of options instruments.

Allocate Slug's Roth