outlook for gold?

[feh]

I purchased gold about a year ago. I'm now wondering when will be the best time to take the profits.

A couple months ago, pundits were saying the dollar would bottom out in the first quarter of 2008. But recently, I've heard gold may be strong throughout 2008, despite the recent run. Some are saying $1000 gold is a possibility.

Anybody have thoughts on the subject? Is gold buy, sell or hold?

Thanks.

[Broken Arrow]

I think sweeps said it best when he said that it will make money in the short term, but not in the long term. I guess you could ride it out some more if you want to bet on recession. Otherwise, you might as well sell now, while it's still riding high. Either way though, it's a sell.

[scfr]

I'd vote sell. The price inceases are being driven by investors, not by demand by actual consumers of gold. Sounds like a familiar old tune (real estate, tulips).

[sweeps]

I'm interested in what the next bubble is. Tech stocks had their day, then it was international stocks, then it was real estate, now commodities are teetering on the edge.

[Scanner]

Sweeps,

Why do you say commodities are in a bubble?

Do you foresee the Indian and Chinese economies and populations dwindling?

Are we going to be able to replace oil next year? In 5 years? In 10?

[sweeps]

Scanner, it's all about the speculators. Everybody still needs a place to live, but that didn't stop real estate from getting the smackdown once speculators bolted.

At least housing has real utility to it, which keeps it from totally tanking. Gold? It's just pretty to look at.

[F16]

But recently, I've heard gold may be strong throughout 2008, despite the recent run.

That's right.

Some are saying $1000 gold is a possibility.

Well, $1000 gold, not sure...

Anybody have thoughts on the subject? Is gold buy, sell or hold?

Buy and hold.

Thanks.

You are welcome)

[Broken Arrow]

I find it hard enough to just speculate on the general future, but to nail it down to a specific number such as $1000 gold.... Personally, I don't think it's worth focusing too much on arbitrary milestones like that.

I also think it's worth clarifying two underlying issues here. The first is whether certain commodities such as gold can be used as a part of a diversified portfolio. In which case, yes, I believe so. They make for a reasonable alternative to bonds in that both have an inverse beta, so they make for a pretty good hedge against the market. Now this is just me, but I think you would find greater selection, flexibility, and diversification with bonds than you can with gold. However, this is also part of a buy-and-hold strategy.

The second way to look at gold is in terms of a trading position. Differing from buying and holding in a diversified portfolio, I think gold has had a great run, good enough that I may have to eat my own words. However, after record highs, I'm of the opinion that it's time to sell it, laugh like an evil genius that you are, and search for the next bubble ride.

Speaking of which... anybody know what the next bubble will be? Anybody want to even take a cheap shot at that?

I personally have no idea, but for fun and merriment, but I'm leaning towards betting on the recession. We may already be in it and not even know it (yet), but if it does, it's likely that producers and retailers of staples may get a boost. An easy play would be Walmart, which is currently stagnating from more upscale competitors like Target, but that can easily change if recession hits hard. It's hardly a bubble, but that's currently the best that I can think of.

Oh, and please don't take that as stock advice or anything. I'm just rambling in general.

[feh]

Speaking of which... anybody know what the next bubble will be? Anybody want to even take a cheap shot at that?

I'm not looking for the next bubble. All the investing I do is for retirement (long-term) purposes, and I re-shuffle things on an annual basis.

From what I've been reading, 2008 will be tough for US markets, recession or not. So, I'm planning something like this:

40% international (primarily Asia)
30% domestic (fusex, fcntx, flvcx)
20% bonds
10% cash

Feedback appreciated!

[Broken Arrow]

Oh! Well, in that case please buy and hold. Don't even worry about how high gold is. In fact, I wouldn't worry about the recession either. The market is cyclical, and recessions happen. I would just stick to the asset allocation that is most suitable to you, and be along your merry way.

[buzz]

You have enjoyed a nice return already. I would sell the gold.

[Scanner]

I think the next bubble is international.

I have been antsy on having 1/3rd in that and have considered diversifying back into real estate or financials.

Let me be clear - it's not my opinion that foreign companies will never make money again. I just think the major part of the bull run has been 1995-2006/7. I'm not how much further this bull is going to ride and whether we will get a long bear as in the case of Japan in the 90's.

[Scanner]

BTW, as of today, I"m up 20% for the year on silver.

Of course, just wait 3 days and that could change to 10%.

[Broken Arrow]

I think the next bubble is international.

For what it's worth, at least one guy on MSNBC's Fast Money believes so too, along with a couple of articles I've read on the internet.... Or at least, it's suppose to be a good place to shelter against recession.

Of course, it's already been bubbling for many years now and for all we know, it could be ready to burst as well. So hard to tell. Much harder than domestic stocks. Then again, my valuation techniques-- if you can call it that-- is amateur at best. But because I don't really understand it at all, I would be personally concerned with what I would be buying into.

This is definitely one of those areas where I would just have a competent and trustworthy fund manager handle it. But then, there's the rub too: For trading purposes, do we really know when to cash it in? I mean, you assume that a fund manager knows how to invest it and get the best return possible, but... he's not going to send you a nice email saying, "Hey BA. It's time to cash in your chips. I sense that it's going down the tubes."

I mean, at least with something like gold, we can get some sense of it, but an international fund?

So, for speculating purposes, I personally would not go international.... I'm not saying others should or shouldn't. I'm just sticking with the idea of investing in only what I understand.

Otherwise, I've got 30% international in my 401k, and I sure hope that my fund manager knows what HE's doing.

[Scanner]

Broken Arrow,

I may be being repetitive, but here's how I see it:

The rule is to be diversified but there's no rule on how and where (at least not as far as I have read).

My own arbitrary formula for retirement:

$0 - 15K 1 fund/ETF
15 - 50K 2 funds/ETF
50 -100K 3 funds/ETF
100K- 500K 4 funds/ETF
500K + 5 funds with a must in bonds/debt sector

I ladder it like this because with each "step", I feel I have more "psychologically" to lose with a downturn of 20-30% in a sector.

So. . .I am in the 3 funds category right now. Now, since I only have to have 3 sectors/funds, it doesn't matter which.

If I jump out of international, I can go into a REIT. . .or I could go into small cap or whatever.

I'll still be diversified and because my asset allocation is "minimalist" in philosophy, I get to take advantage of bull runs much better (and get hit by bears too).

I don't see why "Hold steadfast" or "buy and hold" has become such a prevalent philosophy. If you think international is in a bubble, then cash your chips in and swtich that part of your portfolio to something else. I am starting to question the "buy and hold" philosophy when fundamentals seem to challenge it.

But most people here hold 10 funds. With that many. . .there's not too much else to switch to I will admit.