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In it for the long haul, but...

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  • In it for the long haul, but...

    I am 25 years old and currently have 15K in my 401K plan. Because of my age, all of the money is spread between a few high risk, aggressive funds.

    I believe that the US markets are due for a short term correction because of the uncertain economy and a bursting housing bubble.

    I'm in it for the long haul, but a part of me is saying to switch out of the aggressive funds into more conservative and moderate funds for this year.

    Is this a smart move, or is it an ill advised move based on nothing but a gut feeling? Thanks in advance for any advice or comments.

  • #2
    Based on your question I would say your investments don't match your risk tolerance. If you were really in it for the long haul, you'd stay the course.

    So to answer the question, you would probably be well-advised to get into more conservative stock funds -- not because of your gut feeling but because of your lower tolerance for risk.

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    • #3
      Please don't forget dollar-cost averaging. While a lot of equities may take a hit, they are also cheaper to buy. Over the course of... what, 40 years, chances are, you'll more than ride through this recession and the next.

      Finally, I hope you won't feel bad if your risk tolerance turns out to be lower than expected. Most people are, and as such, there only two kinds of people: Ones who know it, and ones who don't yet.

      Anyway, it's OK to be concerned about it, but I wouldn't let it affect your decisions. Just set your allocations appropriately and let it do its thing.

      Now, if you're more of an active trader, then that's a different story. But then, I don't think a retirement fund would be the appropriate venue for it anyway.
      Last edited by Broken Arrow; 01-02-2008, 01:44 PM.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by sweeps View Post
        Based on your question I would say your investments don't match your risk tolerance. If you were really in it for the long haul, you'd stay the course.

        So to answer the question, you would probably be well-advised to get into more conservative stock funds -- not because of your gut feeling but because of your lower tolerance for risk.
        You answered my question with the bolded statement. I wouldn't say that I have a low risk tolerance...I understand that there will generally be steeper ups and downs with aggressive funds.

        My feeling is that the market will decline in 2008. My goal would be to limit this decline by switching to more conservative funds for a period of one year, and then to switch back to the aggressive funds once again when the market is ready for a rebound.

        However, my plan all along has been to "stay the course." I'm just reaching out to see if this idea has any merit and could potentially work out to my benefit.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Broken Arrow View Post
          Please don't forget dollar-cost averaging. While a lot of equities may take a hit, they are also cheaper to buy. Over the course of... what, 40 years, chances are, you'll more than ride through this recession and the next.
          Good point, I never looked at it that way.

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          • #6
            Personally, I'm hoping for a recession and a correction. I prefer to buy stocks on sale. If you can't understand this, maybe your risk tolerance is lower than you thought, as sweeps suggested. I am a few years older than you and I am about 98% stocks and 2% fixed income. Honestly, I haven't even blinked through all of this volatility.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by parafly View Post
              My goal would be to limit this decline by switching to more conservative funds for a period of one year, and then to switch back to the aggressive funds once again when the market is ready for a rebound.
              That's called market timing and IT DOESN'T WORK! You don't have a crystal ball. There is no way to know then we've hit bottom and it is time to get back in. Look at recent market performance - swings of 200-300 points per day. Miss just one of the 300 point upswings and you've missed a tremendous amount.

              Stay in the market all the time and keep buying through a regular investment plan. If watching the gyrations of the market bothers you, do one of two things: 1) stop watching or 2) change to a more conservative allocation so you can sleep better at night.
              Steve

              * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
              * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
              * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

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              • #8
                if you are looking for long haul then be prepared for some huge bumps ahead. But hold yoru patience, you might simply get successs one day

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