3 alarm funds?

[rerod]

http://www.fundalarm.com/home.htm

Do any of you use this web site to choose "honor" funds? Or other sites? Morning star ratings etc. I thought I might take the advice until Im better educated how to choose. At the moment Im only looking at the % since inception to rate them.

[disneysteve]

Re: 3 alarm funds?

I had never seen that site before. Very interesting idea to list funds that you should consider getting out of. Certainly not the usual info. I think it might be worth checking that from time to time to see if any of your funds show up on their list. If so, I wouldn't necessarily sell, but I'd certainly do a little more research.

[kv968]

Re: 3 alarm funds?

I don't use that site but it's not a bad one to use as a piece of your information gathering. And I say a "piece" because there's not one website or number you can look that will totally rate a fund. It takes quite a bit of looking and checking to find something suitable. I've looked for that one "magical" number and there just isn't any. Morningstar's rating system is probably one of the best in the fact that it takes into account many aspects of the fund (ie. performance, risk, management, etc...) but even they say that their star system shouldn't be a total deciding factor when choosing a fund.

One of the best ways to "rate" a fund quickly is to compare it to similar funds in it's category. Again, it won't tell you everything but that's a good place to start.

And I would advice you not to use the % since inception to compare funds. That number can be the most misleading of all due to when the funds were started and what type of returns they use to calculate the percentage.

Just keep looking, comparing, reading and asking questions. Believe me, you'll learn as you go along.

[disneysteve]

Re: 3 alarm funds?

And I would advice you not to use the % since inception to compare funds. That number can be the most misleading of all due to when the funds were started and what type of returns they use to calculate the percentage.

Very true. Let's say you find a real estate fund that was started 5 years ago. It may have phenomenal numbers since inception, but that doesn't mean you want to buy it now. Another real estate fund that has been around for 15 or 20 years would have lower numbers since inception, but might be a better fund overall.

Just to be clear about this website, though. They are very clear on their purpose, and that is to highlight funds that you should SELL. They are not trying to recommend funds that you should buy, so I don't know that I would use it for that purpose.

[kv968]

Re: 3 alarm funds?

Just to be clear about this website, though. They are very clear on their purpose, and that is to highlight funds that you should SELL. They are not trying to recommend funds that you should buy, so I don't know that I would use it for that purpose.

To show what to possibly SELL is a nice feature that you don't see much. A lot of sites are focused on what you should be buying. However even with this site they compare some funds against the wrong benchmark. I'll give it to them that do better than most but still not completely accurate.

An example would be that they compare every large-cap fund to the S&P 500. Although that's a good overall comparison, they don't differentiate between value and growth. I know this may seem like nitpicking but a growth fund has performed quite differently than a value fund.

[rerod]

Re: 3 alarm funds?

The site has a honor roll list also.

I found a few TIAA CREF funds which made the honor list. TIMAX TIQRX TIEIX TIINX TIIEX. Yet none of them are available for me to invest in. Why is that?

I really have my doubts about learning how to invest wisely. Iv spent the last week with that glazed over my eyes. I dont trust the "licensed" advisors at TIAA CREF.

kv said: "It takes quite a bit of looking and checking to find something suitable" But I have no idea what to look and check for.

This is driving me nuts. Who could I hire to help me out for now?

[safari]

Re: 3 alarm funds?

I like the top 25 funds by category listings on the Market Watch website http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/mut...s/100index.asp

You can choose different categories (growth, value, global, etc.) and compare the funds' performance by choosing different time periods (from 1 day to 15 years). I wish they had listings by cap size and by sector. Currently all sector funds are listed together, which is not really helpful, as it doesn't make sense to compare real estate to energy, etc.

[disneysteve]

Re: 3 alarm funds?

For picking mutual funds, I like the annual mutual fund guide issues of Money and Kiplinger's. They list virtually every fund with investment type, short-term and long-term performance data, expense ratio and, most importantly, rankings within their peer groups. Ultimately, what you want to find is a solid fund with a good track record compared to similar funds, and low expenses. Find one of those in each investment type (large company, small company, international, etc.) and you'll do well.

[kv968]

Re: 3 alarm funds?

Marketwatch.com, morningstar.com, Money, Kiplinger's...They are all good ways to research funds. The above two posts are exactly what you need to do. Compare like-funds and like-sectors. And more importantly, don't just jump on the fund that had the highest return in the last year or so since those tend to be the ones which will fare worse in the next few years.

Rerod, I looked at your portfolio posting in the other thread and you're well diversified in your TIAA-CREF 401k. Although you may want to drop your exposure to real estate by 5-10% and maybe up your int'l, but that's just my opinion. If you're that worried about not knowing what to invest in through your IRA just pick a fund family from the one's you mentioned and put it in a target date retirement fund for the time being. As you learn more about investing you can later go in and disperse that money to different funds if you want to. In the meantime you started your Roth and if you don't want to do anything with it'll be just fine in those funds.

And let me suggest the book "A Bogleheads' Guide to Investing" as a great way to learn. It's a great book and not too dull nor technical like some investing books. Albeit it was written by people who swear by Vanguard and indexing and they tout that style of investing quite a bit but there's nothing wrong with that. Start off with that book and check around on websites and forums like this and you'll get the hang of it

[rerod]

Re: 3 alarm funds?

I haven't started my Roth yet because I need to feel comfortable with and reallocate my TIAA CREF first. I will go with vanguard when I do though.

What puzzles me are why highly rated funds arnt available to me.
And why ticker symbols for CREF Variable Annuity Accounts don't exist. I cant find ratings for them.

Guaranteed
TIAA Traditional

Equities
CREF Stock
CREF Growth
CREF Equity Index
CREF Global Equities

Real Estate
TIAA Real Estate

Fixed Income
CREF Bond Market
CREF Inflation-Linked Bond
Western Asset Core Plus Bond Portfolio

Money Market
CREF Money Market
----------------------------------
Yet ticker symbols and ratings are available for these..

TIAA-CREF Growth & Income Fund - Retirement Class
TIAA-CREF Social Choice Equity Fund - Retirement Class
TIAA-CREF Real Estate Securities Fund - Retirement Class
TIAA-CREF International Equity Fund - Retirement Class
TIAA-CREF Large-Cap Value Fund - Retirement Class
TIAA-CREF Mid-Cap Growth Fund - Retirement Class
TIAA-CREF Mid-Cap Value Fund - Retirement Class
TIAA-CREF S&P 500 Index Fund - Retirement Class
TIAA-CREF Large-Cap Growth Index Fund - Retirement Class
TIAA-CREF Large-Cap Value Index Fund - Retirement Class
TIAA-CREF Mid-Cap Blend Index Fund - Retirement Class
TIAA-CREF Mid-Cap Growth Index Fund - Retirement Class
TIAA-CREF Mid-Cap Value Index Fund - Retirement Class
TIAA-CREF Small-Cap Blend Index Fund - Retirement Class
TIAA-CREF Small-Cap Growth Index Fund - Retirement Class
TIAA-CREF Small-Cap Value Index Fund - Retirement Class
TIAA-CREF International Equity Index Fund - Retirement Class
TIAA-CREF Small-Cap Equity Fund - Retirement Class
American Funds Washington Mutual Investors Fund
American Funds EuroPacific Growth Fund

Multi-Asset
CREF Social Choice
TIAA-CREF Lifecycle Fund 2010
TIAA-CREF Lifecycle Fund 2015
TIAA-CREF Lifecycle Fund 2020
TIAA-CREF Lifecycle Fund 2025
TIAA-CREF Lifecycle Fund 2030
TIAA-CREF Lifecycle Fund 2035
TIAA-CREF Lifecycle Fund 2040

These are the choices I have BTW. And I will get the book A Bogleheads' Guide to Investing.

Thanks

[kv968]

Re: 3 alarm funds?

First off, what is it that you want to reallocate in your TIAA-CREF 403(b) and why?

Secondly, you may not find the tickers for those specific funds because of their class designation or because they're held in an annuity or commingled pool. I have the same problem with some of the funds in my 401k and I just try to find the fund that closest resembles the one I have and use that. You could probably do that by going to the TIAA-CREF website: http://www.tiaa-cref.org/ and get the tickers of their retail class and use them. The expense ratio is probably different than the shares you have but the holdings within them should be the same. If I'm wrong maybe someone can correct me. If not then that'll at least give you a decent place to start looking.

I'm not sure which "highly rated funds" you're talking about when you say that they aren't available to you, but that may have something to do with the agreement your employer has set up with them. Again, if I'm wrong someone please correct me.

And lastly, I think that book will clear up a lot of questions you may have. If not, feel free to ask here and other places. The people who wrote that book maintain a website: www.diehards.org that can offer a lot of good info as well. One thing to know, their discussion forum is very informative but can get pretty "complicated" at times so if you use it and feel like you're getting lost don't lose hope. They can get quite indepth at times.

[rerod]

Re: 3 alarm funds?

My portfolio is aggressive at the moment. I would like to back off and make it as recession-proof as possible. Or prepare it for a sluggish economy with real estate slowing and possibly creating a tipping point.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/five-ways-recession-proof-your-portfolio/story.aspx?guid=%7B4F06EEF7%2DA67B%2D43E1%2D91EE%2D124652AA9EF0%7D&dist=

I'm tempted to move everything into the TIAA-CREF Lifecycle Fund 2010 or large-cap and mid-cap index funds.

Some of the funds I have not having a ticker make it impossible for me to find a rating.

The highly rated funds I found are from the honor list on the 3 alarm site and kiplinger. TIMAX TIQRX TIEIX TIINX TIIEX VASVX. Some highly rated on Morning star are available to me. TRVRX TRVUX TRCVX for example. I posted the funds available for me in the previous post.

But at the moment I'm just shooting in the dark or looking at "highly rated" funds. Not actually knowing , but taking advise from people who know more than I do. After reading about them. Its the manager of the fund who makes or breaks it. A manager leaving is a red flag. TIAA CREF is in reform. But Iv never received a notice that a manager has left. The time needed to research and understand all this is more than I have at the moment. I have a job, 2 teen age kids, and a fixer-upper I'm working on already. I just cant find the time.

[kv968]

Re: 3 alarm funds?

Not having the time to research and understand all of this is totally understandable. Believe me, you don't want to know the time and effort I've spent learning what I have and I've still got a long way to go.

That said, don't believe everything you read either. The article you posted was good but don't think the sky is falling everytime you hear something negative. I know there's a lot of talk about the market getting too high...a "soft" or "hard" real estate landing...a recession is coming... Just don't get too caught up in it all or you'll never rest easy. I'm not saying bad times aren't coming because they very well could be, no one really knows. However if you look at that article, it's dated Sept 2nd and since then the S&P 500 has risen 6.9% and the Dow has gone up 7.0%. So who's to say? There's nothing wrong with reducing your risk if you're not comfortable with where you're at but just don't react to everything you hear.

If you're uncomfortable with your current stock exposure then reduce it and increase your bonds. I stated in an earlier posting that you may want to reduce your real estate exposure since this is a "specialty" sector and, although performing quite well recently, is more volatile than most other sectors. And if you'd like to somewhat "recession-proof" your portfolio, get out of growth stocks since they're usually the ones that get hit the hardest. But then again there's talk that the growth sector is due for a comeback. See what I mean about going nuts with listening to everything that's predicted?

The tickers for the funds you own can be found here:

http://quicktake.morningstar.com/FundFamily/Snapshot.asp?Country=USA&Symbol=11359

Just scroll down to the bottom and you'll find them.

If you're worried about manager changes your best bet would be index funds because it doesn't really matter which manager runs them as they only follow a preset index.

And the reason you're probably not allowed to invest in the high-rated funds you mentioned is because they are individual funds and not part of a retirement plan.

If you move into the Lifecycle 2010 your bond and cash holdings would be 40% which may be too high for someone your age. However if you'd feel more comfortable with that then maybe that's what you should do. There's no sense in losing sleep at night.

Hope some of that helped. If not, let us know.

[rerod]

Re: 3 alarm funds?

kv. What raised a red flag was my CREF Variable Annuity Growth
$64.80 -0.22 5.49% 5.01% 1.11% 3.77% 7.89%.
And what Iv read about index funds performing better on www.coffeehouseinvestor.com. I would have expected the Growth fund to perform better. It has a 2 star rating at morning star. Compared to the 5 star on the CREF Variable Annuity stock. So I penciled up a portfolio I felt might perform better following a guide line from the coffeehouse.

10% TIAA-CREF Large-Cap Growth Index Fund - Retirement Class *** MS rating
$12.34 -0.05 8.70% 7.90% -- -- 12.88%
10% TIAA-CREF Large-Cap Value Index Fund - Retirement Class ****
$16.12 -0.08 21.81% 19.86% -- -- 19.15%
10% TIAA-CREF Small-Cap Growth Index Fund - Retirement Class ****
$15.36 -0.13 12.96% 12.95% -- -- 21.38%
10% TIAA-CREF Small-Cap Value Index Fund - Retirement Class ****
$14.45 -0.13 22.93% 20.90% -- -- 22.89%
10% TIAA-CREF International Equity Index Fund - Retirement Class ****
$21.08 0.02 25.87% 27.86% -- -- 23.57%
10% TIAA-CREF Real Estate Securities Fund - Retirement Class **
$16.22 0.07 32.84% 36.46% -- -- 27.81%

10% CREF Variable Annuity Stock *****
$242.15 -0.85 17.24% 16.65% 8.24% 7.97% 10.59%
30% CREF Variable Annuity Bond Market *****
$79.51 -0.02 4.10% 5.69% 4.91% 6.06% 7.18%

How do I dump the variable annuties in favor of straight mutual funds

Any comments are greatly appreciated

[kv968]

Re: 3 alarm funds?

Rerod, first off congratulations on doing the homework. I know time is hard to come by to check all this stuff out but you're doing great.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure how you get out of the annuities. You may be able to just transfer the funds into others but you'll have to check with your employer's plan. It all depends on what type of contract they have set up with TIAA-CREF. You can check out the type of accounts in their prospectus:

http://www.tiaa-cref.org/pdf/prospectuses/cref_prospectus.pdf

Go to page 44 and it will describe the various contracts it offers under annuities. Then if you go to page 49 it describes which contracts you can freely exchange and which are dependent on your employer's plan. Again, I think you're going to have to check with your employer on that.

One suggestion I would make though is that if you can get out of the annuities, you might want to put the 10% that's in the stock annuity into the int'l index just to keep your int'l exposure up a little bit.

Let us know how you do or if you have any other questions.