2017 prediction for the usd market.

[sv2007]

I don't try to make predictions for purely speculative purposes.
Yes, you could say the USD is now somewhat "strong" but in my lifetime it has been a heck of a lot stronger. I was an exchange student in the mid-80's and thought the country I lived in was "super cheap" . . . but at today's exchange rate the same country seems "expensive."

Although I'm not interested in playing the currency markets, DH & I do have a "buy" number in mind when we will buy some currency of DH's native country. We've had the same number for awhile now, but haven't hit it yet. We are watching the exchange rates more closely now as it's getting closer.

In a way this could be considered "timing the market" but only in order to buy some currency that we would be buying eventually anyway (DH travels there 2-3 times a year and I travel there periodically to visit his family). I'd compare it to stocking up on a pantry staple when it's on sale or carefully considering the best time of year to make a major purchase (car, appliance, etc) that you need anyway. Or when we "timed" the sale of our house followed by a home purchase several years later.

I do think that for anyone who knows they will be traveling overseas in the next few years, it wouldn't hurt to study the exchange rates and make an educated guess about an ideal time to buy the currency of the country you'll be visiting. Of course, if you are very close to taking an overseas trip, it might make the most sense to wait until you arrive at your destination as the best "today" rates are often not found here in the US but at your travel destination.

Whether you want to admit it or not, you are playing a mini-FOREX by exchanging USD for your country's currency ahead of time thinking it's a good deal ATM.

BTW, what's the country?

As for historical strength; are we going back to the civil war times? Or more recent, like when EUR was introduced? Both times USD was weaker than now. History can be funny, depending on the investor.