1 in 4 restaurants may not reopen

[disneysteve]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/1-in-4-restaurants-wont-reopen-after-the-coronavirus-pandemic-opentable-ceo-warns-2020-05-15

The CEO of OpenTable is predicting that one quarter of restaurants may not be able to reopen as a result of the pandemic effect. I also read another article that talked about many restaurants in areas that have been allowed to reopen that are voluntarily remaining closed because they can't see a way to be profitable with the reduced capacity restrictions that are currently in place. If they normally seat 150, they just can't reopen seating only 50 and still make any money. I've seen several reports already of restaurants that have announced they are closing permanently. I posted about Soup Plantation/Sweet Tomatoes in another thread. A quick search just now showed several places in the Minneapolis area that have announced they will not be back. I suspect that's happening nationwide.

As someone who really enjoys fine dining, and more casual stuff as well, I wonder how many of our favorite spots won't be back. Sweet Tomatoes is the only one I've heard of so far.

[~bs]

Exactly, which is why I said in the other thread that it may make more sense for some businesses to fold if they have the opportunity than reopen. Restaurant margin is slim enough, and that's trying to pack people in during peak times and turn as many covers as possible. Now you have a situation that halves their covers, and it's a no brainer that the business won't be able to stay afloat.

One way the government can help is to temporarily allow seating in outdoor public areas.

[disneysteve]

Exactly, which is why I said in the other thread that it may make more sense for some businesses to fold if they have the opportunity than reopen. Restaurant margin is slim enough, and that's trying to pack people in during peak times and turn as many covers as possible. Now you have a situation that halves their covers, and it's a no brainer that the business won't be able to stay afloat.

One way the government can help is to temporarily allow seating in outdoor public areas.

The issue here is that there are at least temporary, and possibly long-term, changes to the business model. In that situation, it totally makes sense to throw in the towel. A business that was highly dependent on packing in as many people as they could just can't do that anymore, or at least not anytime soon. The CEO of Sweet Tomatoes said he saw no way that the buffet experience can come back, which is why they have closed.

My wife and I went to a piano bar in NYC back in December. The tables were literally a couple of inches apart. We needed to slide the table to the side for me to get to my seat and then slide it back, then do the same when the table next to us changed occupants, then again when we left. There's no way they will be able to operate like that anytime soon, especially in mid-town Manhattan. I hope they survive.

Outdoor seating is an option for some restaurants, but not a lot. I live in a suburban area. Most eateries don't have any outdoor space to use for seating. Or maybe they could put 3 or 4 small tables on the sidewalk but that's about it. No way would that be enough to replace losing 50% or more of their indoor seating.

[~bs]

The issue here is that there are at least temporary, and possibly long-term, changes to the business model. In that situation, it totally makes sense to throw in the towel. A business that was highly dependent on packing in as many people as they could just can't do that anymore, or at least not anytime soon. The CEO of Sweet Tomatoes said he saw no way that the buffet experience can come back, which is why they have closed.

My wife and I went to a piano bar in NYC back in December. The tables were literally a couple of inches apart. We needed to slide the table to the side for me to get to my seat and then slide it back, then do the same when the table next to us changed occupants, then again when we left. There's no way they will be able to operate like that anytime soon, especially in mid-town Manhattan. I hope they survive.

Outdoor seating is an option for some restaurants, but not a lot. I live in a suburban area. Most eateries don't have any outdoor space to use for seating. Or maybe they could put 3 or 4 small tables on the sidewalk but that's about it. No way would that be enough to replace losing 50% or more of their indoor seating.

Outdoor seating is a small gesture, and i agree it will not help a lot, nor will it help all restaurants, nor will it really help the businesses in winter or in inclemental weather. The only true solution to assisting these businesses is the eventual full releasing of restrictions, whether it be herd immunity or a vaccine. And that will take too long for most existing businesses.

There's other business models that depends on "packing people in" that likely would have difficulty sustaining operations as well. Spas, fitness clubs, bars, nightclubs, sports stadiums, airlines, etc. If this really does become a long term norm, then a drastic change to business models may be in order. Not sure if this would mean a large reduction in number of businesses with increased pricing... but the current business model won't be sustainable. A vacation may mean that the airplane is always half full, but ticket pricing is double. A night out to the restaurant might mean prices are way higher, but higher quality food and intimate setting. "Casual dining" might not be able to survive. etc etc.

[disneysteve]

There's other business models that depends on "packing people in" that likely would have difficulty sustaining operations as well. Spas, fitness clubs, bars, nightclubs, sports stadiums, airlines, etc. If this really does become a long term norm, then a drastic change to business models may be in order.

I heard that some gyms (don't remember where ) are reopening with limited capacity and by appointment only. Being a regular gym goer, that would definitely be an issue for me. I rarely know exactly when I'm going to workout. But I also don't want to be running on a treadmill with another person running 2 feet away from me. Plus if I have to wear a mask, I have no idea how that will work. Heck, it's hard enough to breathe when I'm exercising normally.

I've already seen a few stories about the airplanes being packed and customers being upset, understandably. And 60,000 people at a football game sounds like a disaster movie set up at this point.

[mumof2]

In our state over here we have just started outdoor eating at restaurants again as of the weekend, as long as they adhere to social distancing....but many have been doing take away during the pandemic so able to make some money as well....there are no sports events or anything yet but our state is doing great we have no active cases of covid19 in our state...but other states who still have daily new cases are doing the same which I think is so stupid..they don't have it under control yet...but as long as they keep the borders closed we will be happy

[disneysteve]

our state is doing great we have no active cases of covid19 in our state...but other states who still have daily new cases are doing the same which I think is so stupid..they don't have it under control yet...but as long as they keep the borders closed we will be happy

I have a good friend in Melton who I talk to regularly. The situation there is far, far different. Your entire country has had fewer than 10,000 cases while here in New Jersey alone, we've had more deaths than that and 15 times as many cases. I know you were all shut down same as us, but I think reopening will be far easier there.

[~bs]

I heard that some gyms (don't remember where ) are reopening with limited capacity and by appointment only. Being a regular gym goer, that would definitely be an issue for me. I rarely know exactly when I'm going to workout. But I also don't want to be running on a treadmill with another person running 2 feet away from me. Plus if I have to wear a mask, I have no idea how that will work. Heck, it's hard enough to breathe when I'm exercising normally.

I've already seen a few stories about the airplanes being packed and customers being upset, understandably. And 60,000 people at a football game sounds like a disaster movie set up at this point.

To me, reopening gyms in some capacity makes sense. Limited gym capacity, rope off every other treadmill, etc. Sanitizer around every corner, face mask requirement. The problem is, I dont know if that's a feasible business model. Gyms aren't going to get people returning in droves if you tell them capacity is 20 people, and they need to wait outside for an hour while the people inside finish up working out.

[rennigade]

This may sound crude but is it such a bad thing if some of these restaurants go under? It sucks for people that own it and work there, no doubt. How many pizza shops does one need in a 5 mile radius? In our small easy bumble city, there's at least 10 pizza places within a 5 mile radius. Its silly. It reminds me of going to a cvs and having 75 different shampoos to choose from. Enough already. We're so spoiled and most people never even think about it. They just think its the norm.

I think we'll all survive if 1 of our brew pubs in your neighborhood that serves american food like the 80,000 other ones across the country close up. Again, I know it sounds terrible and thoughtless, but look at the bigger picture.

[disneysteve]

This may sound crude but is it such a bad thing if some of these restaurants go under? It sucks for people that own it and work there, no doubt. How many pizza shops does one need in a 5 mile radius? In our small easy bumble city, there's at least 10 pizza places within a 5 mile radius. Its silly. It reminds me of going to a cvs and having 75 different shampoos to choose from. Enough already. We're so spoiled and most people never even think about it. They just think its the norm.

I think we'll all survive if 1 of our brew pubs in your neighborhood that serves american food like the 80,000 other ones across the country close up. Again, I know it sounds terrible and thoughtless, but look at the bigger picture.

What's the bigger picture? What possible upside is there to that happening? If all of those restaurants were doing well before the shut down, how does it benefit anyone to have them close? It will create thousands of vacant commercial properties, put tens of thousands out of work, and make it that much harder for everyone to get in at their local restaurants that remain open. I can't think of any positive to all of that.

[rennigade]

What's the bigger picture? What possible upside is there to that happening? If all of those restaurants were doing well before the shut down, how does it benefit anyone to have them close? It will create thousands of vacant commercial properties, put tens of thousands out of work, and make it that much harder for everyone to get in at their local restaurants that remain open. I can't think of any positive to all of that.

There is no upside for those who will be out of work. But maybe people will realize they do not need all of these luxuries to live. A restaurant is not a necessity. Life will resume with or without brick and mortar stores. Maybe people will realize they do not have to be out and about 24/7 to live life (not just going out to eat, retail shopping, etc.) I said to my wife, live sports are slowly coming back on the air. We'll start seeing less and less people outside walking around, being semi healthier by getting exercise. People will be glued to their tvs again in no time. We never needed those thousands of commercial properties to begin with. Its all fluff.

[moneybags]

I heard that some gyms (don't remember where ) are reopening with limited capacity and by appointment only. Being a regular gym goer, that would definitely be an issue for me. I rarely know exactly when I'm going to workout. But I also don't want to be running on a treadmill with another person running 2 feet away from me. Plus if I have to wear a mask, I have no idea how that will work. Heck, it's hard enough to breathe when I'm exercising normally.

I've already seen a few stories about the airplanes being packed and customers being upset, understandably. And 60,000 people at a football game sounds like a disaster movie set up at this point.

I feel like my breathing is limited in my mask, so that would impede my workout. There are too many surfaces in the gym for me rush back there. I'm also in an area with a lot of cases/deaths, so I will be slow to go back anywhere.

There are lots of sports stadiums that are outdoor for baseball and football, so they could open with some limited capacity. Similar to restaurants, there has to be a point where it is not profitable.

[mumof2]

I have a good friend in Melton who I talk to regularly. The situation there is far, far different. Your entire country has had fewer than 10,000 cases while here in New Jersey alone, we've had more deaths than that and 15 times as many cases. I know you were all shut down same as us, but I think reopening will be far easier there.

i agree we have had it far less and our country has far less people living in it as well and I get that but i also think that our strict protocols has hlped stop the spread of infection in most states...some states are still having daily cases of it and its because people are not adhering to the protocols...I just hope that it will settle down and life for many can get back to some form of normality...for me life really hasn't changed much

[disneysteve]

i agree we have had it far less and our country has far less people living in it as well and I get that but i also think that our strict protocols has hlped stop the spread of infection in most states...some states are still having daily cases of it and its because people are not adhering to the protocols...I just hope that it will settle down and life for many can get back to some form of normality...for me life really hasn't changed much

I agree completely. I didn't mean to downplay the impact it has had there.

I'm sure the strict response there helped, as it has in every country but the US where our response has been pathetic. We have a completely non-functional national government and many of the states aren't any better. We also have millions of citizens who feel they don't have to follow any rules or laws that don't make sense to them or that they disagree with or that pose the tiniest inconvenience or that were enacted by a governor who belongs to a different political party than them. It's quite sad.

[mumof2]

I agree completely. I didn't mean to downplay the impact it has had there.

I'm sure the strict response there helped, as it has in every country but the US where our response has been pathetic. We have a completely non-functional national government and many of the states aren't any better. We also have millions of citizens who feel they don't have to follow any rules or laws that don't make sense to them or that they disagree with or that pose the tiniest inconvenience or that were enacted by a governor who belongs to a different political party than them. It's quite sad.

I hate it when people only think of themselves rather than the impact on everyone...maybe its just the way people are raised...us aussies tend to step up and fight things together..always have its not an individual thing..I just hope things get better for all those impacted by the covid virus...not just the sick and their families but everyone