Double dip recession is a myth

[Frugal]

I am a woman with two college degrees, and have been laid off four times in the past several years. The statistics officially put out about unemployment by the Labor Dept., etc. are a lie and totally inaccurate...and dramatically understate the reality for people like me. It is nice that there are people not affected by the recession, but those of us affected are still feeling the pain each and every day!!

If fewer people apply for unemployment, it does not mean that there are fewer people unemployed. Many have simply given up, or run out of benefits. I can understand how people would give up, when I know of people saying to me recently they apply and keep trying and cannot get so much as a phone call from a company.

Oh, and there are massive lay-offs in our area (gov't lay-offs and related)...and literally three more houses right next door to each other down my street went on the market overnight last week...next door to the one still unsold after seven-eight months on the market...

So yes, the double-dip recession is a myth, but so is the concept of a "recession". Not only from my personal experience, but from that of others around me dealing with far worse, I believe we are truly in the early stages of the next Greatest Depression.

[WISEWOMAN]

I feel hopeless. I have a job with good benefits but it's sucking the life out of me. I'm doing the job of two persons and my employer expects more. I long for an opportunity but fear change could lead to unemployment in this market. It's a fact, younger cheaper is replacing experienced mature workers.

[photo]

I believe we are truly in the early stages of the next Greatest Depression.

Normally, I might argue against that, but unfortunately, circumstantial evidence is increasing. What is also clear, in part by reading these forums but also by just observing social trends, is that many people do not know how to live within or under their means. Many people seem to spend on what they desire and then complain when they can't pay for the necessities, a phenomenon that first came to my attention by reading the Tightwad Gazette newsletters by Amy Dacyczyn. I think she labeled it "feast or famine" or something similar.

And, as more and more people become dependent upon the government, the worse it's going to get. The "economic stimulus" by the government did not only not stimulate the economy but made it worse for everyone.

[dawnwes]

I read part of that article. We too are in the latter group. DH has a stable job (knock on wood) and has even gotten decent raises the last two years. We have no debt other than mortgage and even though I wish our mortgage were smaller, we are doing fine.

We started our frugal journey before all this started and aren't planning to change our ways now!

Dawn

[ez1]

If fewer people apply for unemployment, it does not mean that there are fewer people unemployed. Many have simply given up, or run out of benefits. I can understand how people would give up, when I know of people saying to me recently they apply and keep trying and cannot get so much as a phone call from a company.

You can follow the U-6 unemployment rate currently at 16.1% - it includes the people who've given up. Also, you can look at labor force participate rate to make sure that unemployment numbers aren't changing just because there are fewer people in the workforce.

[irmanator]

I am wondering how they figure if a woman originally gets laid off then discovers that thru frugality and not needing daycare for the kids, becomes a sahm with no immediate intention of looking for a job, Do they consider her unemployed for the purpose of the statistics? Maybe she gets so good at gardening, couponing and yardsaling that she never ever wants to or needs to go back to work?

(how I wish this was me)

[dawnwes]

I don't think that would matter, she still gets laid off.

This would be for a man or for a woman.

I am not currently working but I did not get laid off. My income IS missed....I made decent money and carried our health benefits, which we now have to pay for. I am frugal and the kids don't need daycare, but even with daycare when I worked I brought home enough to make a noticable difference.

Dawn

I am wondering how they figure if a woman originally gets laid off then discovers that thru frugality and not needing daycare for the kids, becomes a sahm with no immediate intention of looking for a job, Do they consider her unemployed for the purpose of the statistics? Maybe she gets so good at gardening, couponing and yardsaling that she never ever wants to or needs to go back to work?

(how I wish this was me)

[dawnwes]

Interesting.

I found this table Table A-4. Employment status of the civilian population 25 years and over by educational attainment the most telling. Unemployment is among those with college degrees is less than half of those without and less than 1/3 of those without high school diplomas.

Dawn

You can follow the U-6 unemployment rate currently at 16.1% - it includes the people who've given up. Also, you can look at labor force participate rate to make sure that unemployment numbers aren't changing just because there are fewer people in the workforce.

[snafu]

The unemployment figures are extrapolated from the number drawing unemployment insurance benefits. Those who are not eligible or who have received all entitlements are no longer part of the statistic. A great many people have created tiny entrepreneurial work to keep a roof overhead and food on the table.

To me double-dip means my investment portfolio which had mostly recovered to an acceptable level [not where it was before all fell off the track] has been dropping daily. Rather than continue buying more for my investment accounts, I was angry and frustrated with the figures in our retirement segment so splashed out and made purchases I'd researched and considered for almost 3 years.

I'm not having buyer's remorse [yet] but the reaction from family and friends was surprise. I guess they see me as the family frugalista. DH is thrilled with our new-to-us RV.

[ez1]

The unemployment figures are extrapolated from the number drawing unemployment insurance benefits. Those who are not eligible or who have received all entitlements are no longer part of the statistic. A great many people have created tiny entrepreneurial work to keep a roof overhead and food on the table.

Snafu, are you referring to the "unemployment rate" figures from BLS? Those aren't from unemployment insurance benefits. They're from surveys. The weekly initial claims are from unemployment insurance benefits though. Hard to tell whether your post might have been referencing an earlier comment rather than the ones I'd been pointing out.