do you think we will have another down turn in stocks?

[LuxLiving]

I can never decide the 'right' time to get out, or the 'right' time to get back in, which is why I don't try to do market timing.

[disneysteve]

I can never decide the 'right' time to get out, or the 'right' time to get back in, which is why I don't try to do market timing.

Neither can anybody else. That's why nobody should try.

[LuxLiving]

I'm one of those ol'fashioned Dollar Cost Averagers, Disneysteve, for exactly that reason.

[disneysteve]

I'm one of those ol'fashioned Dollar Cost Averagers, Disneysteve, for exactly that reason.

Me too.

[jasonnoguchi]

One thing's for sure, if I had held on 2 years through the worst recession in about a hundred years, I am sure as hell not about to bail out now when its all over!

[BillK]

You can not time the market they say. More likely it should say, you can not time the market in timely fashion every time.

Ups and downs, if you only knew when.

[maat55]

What will make you decide to get back into the market? How can you say now that it will likely be 6 months?

I've yet to have confidence in this mild recovery. Many who predict the second dip recession believe it will happen between now and the second quarter of 2010.

I do not like playing this game and will likely never do it again, but I'm satisfied with the rebound we have had and will wait a while to see if the dip occurs. It's not easy watching the market go up and not be in fully, I'm sure it will be easy to get back in later.

[Snodog]

I think the talking heads on TV are a little paranoid about the possibility of a double dip. Everytime we have a reccession they are yelling "We are going back down." and we rarely have double dips.

I think its in some ways human nature that if you have bad things happen in the past to irrationally expect more of them in the future. I'm not saying we won't have a double dip I'm just saying that I don't know what will happen and neither does anyone else.

Bottom line is don't listen to the talking heads. They can predict what will happen no better than a reasonably intelligent individual. And just because some got lucky and called the current crises doesn't mean they will fare so well next time.

Today the Dow is in the 9800 range and it wouldn't suprise me to see it go to 12000. But I would be just as unsurprised to see it go back down to 7500. And it also wouldn't surprise me if we traded sideways for a while. I just keep on rebalancing and dollar cost averaging.

[LuxLiving]

Likewise here Snodog on rebalancing and dollar cost averaging.

Although I do wonder about the commercial real estate market taking a tumble next with so many businesses going out. Any body have any thoughts?

[maat55]

Likewise here Snodog on rebalancing and dollar cost averaging.

Although I do wonder about the commercial real estate market taking a tumble next with so many businesses going out. Any body have any thoughts?

It is a fact that this will be an factor in the coming year. How much it affects the market is the question. We have seen the affect of the residential bubble.

There are other factors to contend with before things can truely improve, such as: a weak dollar, inflationary pressures and out of control government spending.

[LuxLiving]

I'm just assuming that some businesses might have gotten in on the crazy mortgages that were out there and might have 1)pulled cash out like many residential homeowners did, or 2) got into a new property with some schmancy-fancy-slight-of-hand financing also like what brought about the residential mortgage popping bubble.

Pardon my English, I've had too much coffee today as that last sentence will tell you!

[maat55]

I'm just assuming that some businesses might have gotten in on the crazy mortgages that were out there and might have 1)pulled cash out like many residential homeowners did, or 2) got into a new property with some schmancy-fancy-slight-of-hand financing also like what brought about the residential mortgage popping bubble.

Pardon my English, I've had too much coffee today as that last sentence will tell you!

Most commercial loans are done on shorterm loans and have to be refinanced. The ones that are starting to mature are not capable of this due to low property values.

To add to the problem, many owners and leasers are defaulting on their payments and rents.

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[disneysteve]

One business reporter made a great comment yesterday that businesses need to start showing that they can make more money by selling more product rather than just by cutting costs. Most of the current recovery in stocks is attributable to cost cutting - reducing the workforce, oil prices dropping, outsourcing to cheaper labor markets, etc. A real, sustainable recovery is based on actually doing more business.

[maat55]

One business reporter made a great comment yesterday that businesses need to start showing that they can make more money by selling more product rather than just by cutting costs. Most of the current recovery in stocks is attributable to cost cutting - reducing the workforce, oil prices dropping, outsourcing to cheaper labor markets, etc. A real, sustainable recovery is based on actually doing more business.

Exactly.