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  • Singuy
    replied
    Originally posted by Scallywag View Post

    If you do sell TSLA on 12th / 21st Dec, if TSLA price doubles, at what price point would you be buying back in? My entire holdings are in post tax retirement account with an average cost basis of $293.
    Most bullish price targets from banks are in the 450-550 range. Q4 ER will be a surprise so the stock is worth probably around 550-600. So buy back in once it's in that range

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  • Scallywag
    replied
    Originally posted by Singuy View Post

    Maybe.

    Tsla is a long term hold. However there's a possible S&P squeeze that's too good to pass up if the stock price triple. So I will be keeping a very close eye on how this goes. It's a recipe for perhaps one of the largest squeeze this decade all due to a combination of low float percentage and high S&P mandatory buy in at any price. We shall see, but I'll definitely start putting in sell orders around dec 12/21st if sp spikes to 900-1600. AMD I might start selling around 2023 mostly because Intel may make a comeback but I really need to see where 3d stacking is going by then. Fvrr is a long term hold for at least 3-5 years. Tsla is a 8-10 year hold.

    My intentions are to sell slowly if anything for tax purposes.
    If you do sell TSLA on 12th / 21st Dec, if TSLA price doubles, at what price point would you be buying back in? My entire holdings are in post tax retirement account with an average cost basis of $293.

    Leave a comment:


  • Singuy
    replied
    Originally posted by Scallywag View Post

    Your research really paid off! Well done! I think you're young so you'll be holding on to these shares for decades? Increasing your stakes in these companies?
    Maybe.

    Tsla is a long term hold. However there's a possible S&P squeeze that's too good to pass up if the stock price triple. So I will be keeping a very close eye on how this goes. It's a recipe for perhaps one of the largest squeeze this decade all due to a combination of low float percentage and high S&P mandatory buy in at any price. We shall see, but I'll definitely start putting in sell orders around dec 12/21st if sp spikes to 900-1600. AMD I might start selling around 2023 mostly because Intel may make a comeback but I really need to see where 3d stacking is going by then. Fvrr is a long term hold for at least 3-5 years. Tsla is a 8-10 year hold.

    My intentions are to sell slowly if anything for tax purposes.

    Leave a comment:


  • Scallywag
    replied
    Originally posted by Singuy View Post

    I started investing since March but definitely didn't have 300k I'm 2017. Started out with 12k, and then start accumulating massively in 2018 into AMD then Tesla in 2019. But you can see how the chart looks pretty flat during my accumulating period. And that dip is the Covid crash, which lead me to accumulate some fvrr.

    This is just my Robinhood and have a similar chart in vanguard with the same stocks with 150k invested and now have hit 1.1 million.
    Your research really paid off! Well done! I think you're young so you'll be holding on to these shares for decades? Increasing your stakes in these companies?

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  • Singuy
    replied
    Originally posted by Scallywag View Post

    Wait... You had only 300K invested in March, 2017? Am i understanding this right?

    Also, how / where can I make a similar chart for myself?

    Congratulations on making it to 3 million and long live the bull market!
    I started investing since March but definitely didn't have 300k I'm 2017. Started out with 12k, and then start accumulating massively in 2018 into AMD then Tesla in 2019. But you can see how the chart looks pretty flat during my accumulating period. And that dip is the Covid crash, which lead me to accumulate some fvrr.

    This is just my Robinhood and have a similar chart in vanguard with the same stocks with 150k invested and now have hit 1.1 million.
    Last edited by Singuy; 11-21-2020, 03:29 PM.

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  • Scallywag
    replied
    Originally posted by Singuy View Post
    Disney Steve: How long did it take your portfolio to double?

    Me: Yes

    Wait... You had only 300K invested in March, 2017? Am i understanding this right?

    Also, how / where can I make a similar chart for myself?

    Congratulations on making it to 3 million and long live the bull market!
    Last edited by Scallywag; 11-21-2020, 01:53 PM.

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  • Singuy
    replied
    Disney Steve: How long did it take your portfolio to double?

    Me: Yes


    Attached Files

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  • srblanco7
    replied
    I've been tracking our portfolio in the same spreadsheet since 2005. Our doubling rate has been from 4-6 years. Took a look at the change in value (returns + contributions) during one of the 4-year doubling periods, which was from 2012 to 2016.

    2012 @ 24%
    2013 @ 31%
    2014 @ 16%
    2015 @ 3.5%
    2016 @ 17%

    We are diligent savers, but there's nothing like excellent returns to accelerate the process. Certainly not anticipating these returns moving forward - I run our forward projections at 6-9% (including returns and contributions).

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  • LivingAlmostLarge
    replied
    So not counting home equity and I didn't count our EF in the early year, just retirement and taxable accounts
    2005 $20k in portfolio 26 and 28
    2006 $58k (doubled)
    2007 $86.4k (lots of savings and market tanking)
    2008 $78.6k (keep on saving and going down)
    2009 $121k (finally doubled again in 3 years)
    2010 $201k (just about doubled again)
    2011 $236k
    2012 $393.7k (doubled just about 2 years, maybe if I counted ef, bad recordkeeping)
    2013 $660.5 (wasn't meticulous so maybe higher)
    2014 $766k
    2015 $1.01M (sold house and held cash) so this was the net worth
    2016 $1.06M (no income for half of 2015 and 2016, not bad) this was net worth
    2017 $1.083M (bought house and put down 20% cash and renovations which is why isn't not higher)
    2018 $1.066M (bad market year)
    2019 $1.44M
    2020 thus far $1.863m 41 and 43

    rule of 72 means it might double 7 years, but our savings rate will be almost nil in the next 2 years. So we'll see what happens. If we were to continue with DH's job we would double i bet in 3 years because our savings rate is high. Now if something good happens to DH's job I think we'd be blowing our savings out of the water and something crazy would happen.


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  • jIM_MI
    replied
    Originally posted by disneysteve View Post
    I was just going through my financial records and noticed that our portfolio has doubled over the past 7 years. That made me curious how long the previous doubling had taken, and sure enough it was also 7 years. So 2006 to 2013, and 2013 to 2020. I will hopefully be retired before the next 7-year period ends, so may not see another doubling, which is okay because we don't need it to double to hit our retirement goal; we only need it to increase about 50% which should happen well before 7 years from now.

    Have you ever looked at the doubling rate for your portfolio?
    Rule of 72, if it doubles in 7 years, 72/7=10.2% return

    Mine has more than doubled in last 7, however my balance is low enough that some of that is contributions... I have doubled twice in last 8 years including contributions

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  • Scallywag
    replied
    I only take a 6% ROI when predicting future returns. That doubles my money in 12 years although it delays our goal achievement by 5 years!

    I'm going to be thrilled if the bull market continued but doubt that would happen, unfortunately. A 6% return will get us to our target figure, even if with some delay. So that works out ok for us. I really cannot complain given how dire things have been this year. Ugh. Annus horribilis!

    Leave a comment:


  • QuarterMillionMan
    replied
    I wouldn't count my chickens before they hatch. Gold is $1865 an ounce. Bitcoin is $18,000. Mortgage interest is 3%. The market could crash the likes that we've never seen before. Remember all the quantitative easing, printing of money, kicking the can down the road, USA $27 trillion in debt, the sugar high that the stock markets have seen, the next 7 years let alone the next 4 or 5 years could see some major corrections. I would love to see doubling in the next 7 years as well but the writing is on the wall.

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  • disneysteve
    replied
    Originally posted by moneybags View Post
    The rule of 72 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/ruleof72.asp says your income would double in 7 years at a 10% interest rate.
    True, but that doesn't account for new contributions so the actual return isn't that high.

    Leave a comment:


  • moneybags
    replied
    The rule of 72 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/ruleof72.asp says your income would double in 7 years at a 10% interest rate.

    Leave a comment:


  • disneysteve
    replied
    Originally posted by kork13 View Post
    I expect my pace will slow down, because my contributions no longer make up so much of my growth.
    It's definitely quicker early on. If I go back before 2006, the doubling rate was faster since it was mostly from contributions. Now it's mainly from growth.

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