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Where is the DJIA bottom?

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  • TexasHusker
    replied
    Originally posted by james.hendrickson View Post
    A good sense of how long this epidemic will last would be to look at China and North Korea. Apple has reopened in China, after what? Six weeks?
    North Korea has no Coronavirus. They have a special lead treatment that halts it in its tracks.

    Leave a comment:


  • disneysteve
    replied
    Originally posted by Singuy View Post

    The numbers are actually too good. I was listening to some economists saying that those unemployment numbers doesn't' reflect what is truly happening because it has a 1 week lag.
    A lot of people also haven’t filed yet because the systems have been overwhelmed. My daughter has been trying for a few days and finally got in just now.

    Leave a comment:


  • Singuy
    replied
    Originally posted by disneysteve View Post
    I saw this morning that the Trump admin has asked the states not to release their unemployment numbers as they normally do. They know that those numbers will be ugly and make things look bad (which they are). Those are the figures likely to be moving the market in the coming days. once first quarter earnings start coming out, that will be the next thing. We're not done yet.
    The numbers are actually too good. I was listening to some economists saying that those unemployment numbers doesn't' reflect what is truly happening because it has a 1 week lag.

    Leave a comment:


  • Like2Plan
    replied
    Our portfolio has reached the point where we should re-balance (off by 5%), but I know it will annoy me if I re-balance and it continues downward. Plus, I am in mutual funds so I just hate doing it on a up day (it keeps bouncing back and forth...) .

    Also, still waiting to do a conversion to Roth.

    Leave a comment:


  • disneysteve
    replied
    I saw this morning that the Trump admin has asked the states not to release their unemployment numbers as they normally do. They know that those numbers will be ugly and make things look bad (which they are). Those are the figures likely to be moving the market in the coming days. once first quarter earnings start coming out, that will be the next thing. We're not done yet.

    Leave a comment:


  • rennigade
    replied
    Originally posted by kork13 View Post
    So this week seems to be ending on a (relatively) quieter note... Over the last few days, S&P 500 seems to be oscillating bewteen 2300-2400, and DJIA between 19000-20000....give or take.

    Do you think markets are finally starting to settle, albeit still with significant volatility, around a somewhat neutral range? Or simply taking a breath waiting for the next shoe to drop? After dropping ~30% over the last month, the opportunity buyers may finally be balancing out the panic sellers. Of course, you never know what'll happen... but over the last week or so I've sorta been expecting it to level off at some point soonish as everyone's efforts have continued. Plus, there's (early) progress toward the economic stimulus package in the congress, and POTUS finally invoked the DPA to address medical PPE shortages. This may just be optimism talking, but perhaps we're seeing a moderate stabilization, at least for the present moment. If nothing else, I do think it'll start to become a slower, more steady decline instead of the repeated precipitous drops we've seen the last few weeks.
    Im not sure, I hope so. Tonight, PA is officially shutting down. I would imagine other states are also doing the same. Non life sustaining business are closed. Im not quite sure we're at the bottom yet. Wish i knew cause I do have $15k in bonds I would love to move to an s&p fund.

    Leave a comment:


  • ~bs
    replied
    just keep dca down. we're not even to the levels of the 2008 crisis drop. not even close. when you see the plebs finally throwing in the towel enmasse, that's the bottom.

    Leave a comment:


  • Singuy
    replied
    You guys checked out favipiravir vs kaletra trial from Japan? Kaletra finds to be no better than sugar pill but favipiravir is the real deal. Complete viral clearance after 4 days vs the control group of 11 days for Kaletra. Way less side effect, chest extra and fever both improved a great deal with all having a p value of <0.001 Skip to min 4:20

    Last edited by Singuy; 03-20-2020, 01:46 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • TexasHusker
    replied
    I know just enough to be dangerous and that's even probably a stretch, but it looks like today we had some folks heading for the exits toward the close, so they could sleep this weekend. I figure we are going to hear some good news over the weekend re: mortality rates, anti-virals, and possibly a slight move in the "curve" that could spark a big rally next week.

    Leave a comment:


  • cypher1
    replied
    Originally posted by kork13 View Post
    So this week seems to be ending on a (relatively) quieter note... Over the last few days, S&P 500 seems to be oscillating around 2400 +/- 100, and DJIA around 20000 +/- 1000.

    Do you think markets are finally starting to settle, albeit still with significant volatility, around a somewhat neutral range? Or simply taking a breath waiting for the next shoe to drop? After dropping ~30% over the last month, the opportunity buyers may finally be balancing out the panic sellers. Of course, you never know what'll happen... but over the last week or so I've sorta been expecting it to level off at some point soonish as everyone's efforts have continued. Plus, there's (early) progress toward the economic stimulus package in the congress, and POTUS finally invoked the DPA to address medical PPE shortages. This may just be optimism talking, but perhaps we're seeing a moderate stabilization, at least for the present moment. If nothing else, I do think it'll start to become a slower, more steady decline instead of the repeated precipitous drops we've seen the last few weeks.
    Guessing taking a breath until the next drop, if some other surprise occurs this weekend. But who knows for sure. I made one last small purchase of DIS stock a couple hours ago. I've spent enough money these last two weeks.

    Leave a comment:


  • kork13
    replied
    So this week seems to be ending on a (relatively) quieter note... Over the last few days, S&P 500 seems to be oscillating bewteen 2300-2400, and DJIA between 19000-20000....give or take.

    Do you think markets are finally starting to settle, albeit still with significant volatility, around a somewhat neutral range? Or simply taking a breath waiting for the next shoe to drop? After dropping ~30% over the last month, the opportunity buyers may finally be balancing out the panic sellers. Of course, you never know what'll happen... but over the last week or so I've sorta been expecting it to level off at some point soonish as everyone's efforts have continued. Plus, there's (early) progress toward the economic stimulus package in the congress, and POTUS finally invoked the DPA to address medical PPE shortages. This may just be optimism talking, but perhaps we're seeing a moderate stabilization, at least for the present moment. If nothing else, I do think it'll start to become a slower, more steady decline instead of the repeated precipitous drops we've seen the last few weeks.
    Last edited by kork13; 03-20-2020, 12:04 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • rennigade
    replied
    Originally posted by TexasHusker View Post

    Who can afford a $5 cup of coffee after all of this?
    The same people who lined up around the corner to buy booze. We have a local place here, couldnt even get in the parking lot (according to people who were going to buy booze.) People need their drugs no matter what the situation is. Caffeine or alcohol, pick your poison.

    Leave a comment:


  • bjl584
    replied
    Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

    I was thinking about Starbucks earlier. They are the sort of place that will bounce back very quickly as soon as they are able to reopen. They don't depend on any advance planning like hotels or cruises. They are an immediate, often daily, purchase for many people. They could recover fast.
    Anything with immediate business would have appeal. Most retail outlets, restaurant chains, maybe even a REIT play like Tanger Outlets.

    Leave a comment:


  • TexasHusker
    replied
    Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

    I was thinking about Starbucks earlier. They are the sort of place that will bounce back very quickly as soon as they are able to reopen. They don't depend on any advance planning like hotels or cruises. They are an immediate, often daily, purchase for many people. They could recover fast.
    Who can afford a $5 cup of coffee after all of this?

    Leave a comment:


  • disneysteve
    replied
    Originally posted by james.hendrickson View Post
    On a practical level, Ackman is buying hotel stocks, restaurants brands and starbucks.
    I was thinking about Starbucks earlier. They are the sort of place that will bounce back very quickly as soon as they are able to reopen. They don't depend on any advance planning like hotels or cruises. They are an immediate, often daily, purchase for many people. They could recover fast.

    Leave a comment:

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