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  • QuarterMillionMan
    started a topic Tesla short

    Tesla short

    $193 today. I am contemplating shorting Tesla but Iím afraid of being late to the party. Anyone thinking about shorting it?

  • QuarterMillionMan
    replied
    Originally posted by Singuy View Post

    Hopefully I convinced you not to short in the 180s. Tesla is now almost 220. Investors day tomorrow which historically cause the stock to pop. Also delivery numbers are looking good which means this stock will see 250+ in no time. We got two upgrades recently from banks. Telling you, this stock manipulate bulls and bears. Best is to not get trapped both ways.

    While you are thinking about shorting, I bought 20k worth more between 175-200.
    I stayed away from shorting TSLA and I'm glad about it. Good call buying another $20,000 @ $175-$200, I'm happy for you.

    Leave a comment:


  • corn18
    replied
    Net cash flow is $83.636M, so they are still spending a boatload. But they haven't had to tap any more debt so I give them 2 thumbs up! As long as it doesn't distract him from SpaceX, I am a big fan.

    Leave a comment:


  • Singuy
    replied
    Possible model for the upcoming earning report with a historical good accuracy of 90+%. This is not mine.

    Net cash used in operating activities: +1.4b. <-Shorts are going to explode. Can't go bankrupt now if the company just continue to add cash



    cashflow-png.425824.png

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  • Jluke
    replied
    $240 in after market (up $15 per share). Approximately.

    Leave a comment:


  • Singuy
    replied
    Tesla deliveries smashed previous records and estimates at 95200 cars for the quarter. I am expecting cash flow positive to be over 1 billion, perhaps not GAAP profitable but non gaap profitable is likely. I am also expecting 6+ billion of cash in the bank going to Q3 so bankruptcy in 10 months is completely made up. Guide for Q3 is to smash this current record. Oh look all the analysts and CNBC folks are surprised while we are rolling our eyes thinking "no sh$t Sherlock".

    Possible huge short squeeze tomorrow since so many people followed the trend and went short, with over 34% short float.

    Again I reiterate that knowing the gap between real signal and fake noise is where you make your money. Be greedy when others are fearful.

    Leave a comment:


  • Singuy
    replied
    Originally posted by QuarterMillionMan View Post
    Full disclosure, I got cold-feet and never gathered the galls to short sell Tesla. I was going to short sell $8000 when TSLA dropped to $183 per share and in hindsight I'm glad that I didn't because Tesla is currently at $204 per share.
    Hopefully I convinced you not to short in the 180s. Tesla is now almost 220. Investors day tomorrow which historically cause the stock to pop. Also delivery numbers are looking good which means this stock will see 250+ in no time. We got two upgrades recently from banks. Telling you, this stock manipulate bulls and bears. Best is to not get trapped both ways.

    While you are thinking about shorting, I bought 20k worth more between 175-200.

    Leave a comment:


  • Singuy
    replied
    Ah okay. Yes, Musk guide very liberally and it's taking his credibility away. This is bad for the stock...but also good because you can do your research and see what the actual numbers are prior to earnings by just sleuthing around.

    The number 1 way to make money in the stock market from my experience is to measure how big the disconnect is between the signal and the noise. Tesla is extremely high which means there are many potential for "surprises". I put those in quotations because rarely a good researcher will be surprised. The only thing that surprise me is how long it takes these analysis to catch on.

    Oh look "breaking news"..Microsoft will use AMD in their next console"...yeah no sh*t Sherlock.
    Last edited by Singuy; 06-10-2019, 01:22 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • QuarterMillionMan
    replied
    I was referring mainly to this, Musk in 2016 said Tesla would produce 500,000 vehicles in 2018 but Tesla made 254,530 in 2018, but here are some other false promises from the Guru.
    https://www.businessinsider.com/elon...out-yet-2019-4

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  • Singuy
    replied
    Originally posted by QuarterMillionMan View Post
    I agree w/corn that Musk is a modern day charlatain making false promises but not delivering on those promises but the product is a good quality car.
    What? He is making false promises but the product is a good quality car?

    Leave a comment:


  • corn18
    replied
    Originally posted by Singuy View Post
    Man tough crowd if you don't find vision based autonomous driving and doubling of energy density for the batteries whiled down cost is not exciting for the future of Tesla.
    When it comes to getting my money, I am a very tough crowd. I don't know what the right answer is for the future of transportation, but I know EV is not the wrong answer. As long as I only own TSLA in my index fund, I am rooting for the guy 100%.

    Leave a comment:


  • QuarterMillionMan
    replied
    I agree w/corn that Musk is a modern day charlatain making false promises but not delivering on those promises but the product is a good quality car.

    Leave a comment:


  • Singuy
    replied
    Man tough crowd if you don't find vision based autonomous driving and doubling of energy density for the batteries whiled down cost is not exciting for the future of Tesla.

    Leave a comment:


  • corn18
    replied
    I won't bet against them, but I also won't bet on them. Too much weird at the top and I don't buy individual stocks anyway. But I am rooting for him because I like what he's doing at SpaceX which is where the best engineers actually work. Tesla is boring compared to SpaceX.

    Leave a comment:


  • Singuy
    replied
    It'll be suicidal to short Tesla at these levels. Will there be oppotunities in the future? Sure..this stock can skyrocket on too much hype. Right now it's ridiculously low and it's pretty much a bear trap. All of a sudden Morgan Stanley, the guys who gave Tesla a price target of 10 dollars just changed their tunes saying Tesla really has no demand problem at the moment (no sh#t sherlock, anyone can go on Tesla.com and see there are less than 30 inventory model 3s in the entire U.S...compare that to there are 30 black Ford Mustangs at my local Ford dealer alone). Bunch of dump and pump stock manipulators

    Here's a quick summary of Tesla's competition and why betting against the best engineers on the planet is a fools errand.

    hy730lr296331.jpg
    Last edited by Singuy; 06-08-2019, 06:33 PM.

    Leave a comment:

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