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  • #31
    Originally posted by Singuy View Post
    Let's just pretend climate change is fake. Foreign oil funds terrorism and causes countless of lives from mining, fire,war and CO poisoning. I had a patient died the other day due to a fire at a gas station because he was smoking.

    If you get a chance to be free from the Monopoly that's the electric company, you should.

    We now have the ability to be free of this dirty substance for the most part. I understand oil makes a lot of products we need, but the main usage of fossil fuel can be minimized today.
    I'm just giving you heck. If you think Tesla is moving the needle on climate change, by all means drive a Tesla. If you can charge one from your roof top, by all means do it.
    How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?

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    • #32
      Originally posted by james.hendrickson View Post
      Following on Disneysteves excellent comments, two things on Tesla;

      First, Musk is BUYING, no selling. Here is his latest disclosure. He picked up 175,000 shares at 31 bucks a share via a trust.

      Second, here is a link to their 10-Q. Between 2018 and 2019, I'm seeing their sales are up, losses from operations are down and their overall financial picture has stayed about the same.
      Tesla is a luxury car maker. When the next recession hits, this company is going to tank. Their hay day has been during one of the largest economic expansions in our history, but since luxury (or close) is their only price point, they have no hope of surviving a recession. Land Rover and Jaguar are going down, too. They are already having their troubles along with Tesla.

      When the next recession arrives, the tide will go out, and we will find that a lot of folks don't have their swimming trunks on.
      How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?

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      • #33
        Singuy, Texas - okay, lets focus the conversation. I'm including a screenshot of the Q1 results from 2018 versus 2019. Where exactly do you guys see their troubles happening?

        From a quick review of at least these results, I'm seeing they sold a billion dollars worth more of cars in first quarter of 2019 versus 2018, at pretty much the same cost. I'm also seeing their cost of operations went down.

        Last edited by james.hendrickson; 06-02-2019, 07:16 PM.
        james.c.hendrickson@gmail.com
        202.468.6043

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        • #34
          Yes, like I said their operational cost is flat while increasing revenue over 50% yoy. It's a growth company with plenty of cash in the bank and a CEO with an exit plan if needed.

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          • #35
            Originally posted by TexasHusker View Post

            Tesla is a luxury car maker. When the next recession hits, this company is going to tank. Their hay day has been during one of the largest economic expansions in our history, but since luxury (or close) is their only price point, they have no hope of surviving a recession. Land Rover and Jaguar are going down, too. They are already having their troubles along with Tesla.

            When the next recession arrives, the tide will go out, and we will find that a lot of folks don't have their swimming trunks on.
            JLR is getting absolutely destroyed from warranty cost billed to their company. Almost a billion lost in warranty expenditures a quarter thanks to the blood thirsty dealership network that is sucking them dry.

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            • #36
              Originally posted by Singuy View Post

              JLR is getting absolutely destroyed from warranty cost billed to their company. Almost a billion lost in warranty expenditures a quarter thanks to the blood thirsty dealership network that is sucking them dry.
              We've been driving one for 3 years and are handing back the keys next month. They have had to come and get it, take it 250 miles to their dealership, and deliver it back to us. Twice. The reliability is atrocious. But it some ways it was a delight.

              Back to a boring Toyota. I'm ready for boring.
              How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by james.hendrickson View Post
                Singuy, Texas - okay, lets focus the conversation. I'm including a screenshot of the Q1 results from 2018 versus 2019. Where exactly do you guys see their troubles happening?

                From a quick review of at least these results, I'm seeing they sold a billion dollars worth of more cars in first quarter of 2019 versus 2018, at pretty much the same cost. I'm also seeing their cost of operations went down.
                Let's see what that spreadsheet looks like in the next recession. Tesla makes high end cars. Same for JLR. As Sing pointed out, JLR is in deep dookie. Rumors are that Tata is considering shuddering the Jaguar line in order to tourniquet the blood loss.

                I don't see luxury-only car makers surviving the next recession. The appetite for $50K+ cars is going to shrink dramatically. The other car makers will simply mothball their luxury lines and crank up the cheap cars.
                Last edited by james.hendrickson; 06-02-2019, 07:15 PM.
                How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?

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                • #38
                  Well you can buy a Tesla for 39k before tax credit. I just passed 11k miles. No oil change, no fluid flushes, no spark plugs, no maintenance. Saved about 2.5k in premium gas (and this is cheap FL gas, not expensive Cali gas).

                  So for 39k+4k solar, you can expect to save 25k in gas over 10 years. Battery is rated for 350k miles, motor for a million, brakes for 150k. (and Tesla has been goodwilling the very few people who needed a battery swap outside of warranty unless it's in a wreck).

                  The only cars cheaper to buy+operate than a Tesla is a used civic. That's if the civic doesn't need a timing belt changed, gasket fixed, transmission fixed, etc etc at 150k+ miles. I know for certain an electric car will drive like new at mile 1 and at mile 500k unlike engines. I have yet bought a car where engine idle vibrations doesn't happen past 70-100k miles.
                  Last edited by Singuy; 06-02-2019, 08:18 PM.

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                  • #39
                    Originally posted by Singuy View Post
                    Well you can buy a Tesla for 39k before tax credit. I just passed 11k miles. No oil change, no fluid flushes, no spark plugs, no maintenance. Saved about 2.5k in premium gas (and this is cheap FL gas, not expensive Cali gas).

                    So for 39k+4k solar, you can expect to save 25k in gas over 10 years. Battery is rated for 350k miles, motor for a million, brakes for 150k. (and Tesla has been goodwilling the very few people who needed a battery swap outside of warranty unless it's in a wreck).

                    The only cars cheaper to buy+operate than a Tesla is a used civic. That's if the civic doesn't need a timing belt changed, gasket fixed, transmission fixed, etc etc at 150k+ miles. I know for certain an electric car will drive like new at mile 1 and at mile 500k unlike engines. I have yet bought a car where engine idle vibrations doesn't happen past 70-100k miles.
                    So you can buy a Tesla now for $39K and then get a tax credit on top of that? How much is the tax credit? EDIT: Looks like $3700. So for the mid $30s you can get one. I didn't realize that. That's moving the needle. Go Tesla!
                    Last edited by TexasHusker; 06-03-2019, 05:09 AM.
                    How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      TSLA balance sheet and cash flow are much more interesting than the 10Q. Looks like Elon has dug them out of the cash hole and is generating cash vs. consuming it. That is very good. I can't say what the future of EV's might be, but TSLA as a business is finally looking like a real company.

                      Of course I own some TSLA. Just like I own stock in every company in the US and most of the world. Indexing makes like so easy.

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                      • #41
                        Originally posted by TexasHusker View Post
                        I don't see luxury-only car makers surviving the next recession. The appetite for $50K+ cars is going to shrink dramatically.
                        I don't know about that. The vast majority of luxury cars are leased, not purchased. As long as the dealers can come up with creative financing, maybe a longer lease to bump down the payments, they'll probably be okay. Plus, recession hits the folks at the lower end harder than those at the upper end. The rich won't stop being rich.
                        Steve

                        * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
                        * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
                        * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

                          I don't know about that. The vast majority of luxury cars are leased, not purchased. As long as the dealers can come up with creative financing, maybe a longer lease to bump down the payments, they'll probably be okay. Plus, recession hits the folks at the lower end harder than those at the upper end. The rich won't stop being rich.
                          Only time will tell. Jaguar Land Rover posted a $4 billion loss in Q1, due in large part to significantly lower demand from China. That isn't sustainable.

                          My own Land Rover is worth about $8,000 less than the stated residual in the lease. Land Rover will have to eat that.
                          How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?

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                          • #43
                            SpaceX and Tesla are ranked as the top choice for new engineering students out of 10k surveyed. This is why you don't bet against Elon. He literally hires the best, and will only keep the best while the rest burns out. There's a line of applicants from the best schools waiting to take a shot. The quality of applicants can't even be matched by Google in 3rd place or Apple, a distant 7th. He also invite SpaceX engineers to work on Tesla projects. In fact the Model S' first prototype was created in a corner at the rocket factory. So all this comparison between Tesla and TaTa motors is literally apples to oranges.

                            https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/06/the-...-students.html
                            Last edited by Singuy; 06-08-2019, 02:18 PM.

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                            • #44
                              Yes, Musk comes from a pretty amazing family. His sister is an accomplished filmmaker and his brother Kimball is A list entrepreneur in his own right.

                              james.c.hendrickson@gmail.com
                              202.468.6043

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                              • #45
                                Full disclosure, I got cold-feet and never gathered the galls to short sell Tesla. I was going to short sell $8000 when TSLA dropped to $183 per share and in hindsight I'm glad that I didn't because Tesla is currently at $204 per share.

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