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  • Tesla short

    $193 today. I am contemplating shorting Tesla but Iím afraid of being late to the party. Anyone thinking about shorting it?

  • #2
    BTW, Goldman Sacks says worst case scenario itís a $10-$40 stock.

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    • #3
      You going to buy puts or actual short it? Shorting is not a game I want to play.

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      • #4
        Actual short selling.

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        • #5
          Good luck with that. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

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          • #6
            Whats the thesis behind the short?
            james.c.hendrickson@gmail.com
            202.468.6043

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            • #7
              Originally posted by james.hendrickson View Post
              Whats the thesis behind the short?
              Tesla is in deep dookie.

              https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/tops...les/ar-AABKjIa

              https://www.aol.com/article/finance/...esla/23733043/

              https://www.wired.com/story/another-...er_onsiteshare
              How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?

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              • #8
                Originally posted by corn18 View Post
                Good luck with that. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
                Given Tesla's situation, it would be completely irrational for the value of the company to keep rising. Shorting Tesla makes a lot of sense; buying puts makes more sense, since your downside is limited.
                How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by TexasHusker View Post

                  Given Tesla's situation, it would be completely irrational for the value of the company to keep rising. Shorting Tesla makes a lot of sense; buying puts makes more sense, since your downside is limited.
                  I agree. And about billion other investors. Everyone is short TSLA.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by corn18 View Post

                    I agree. And about billion other investors. Everyone is short TSLA.
                    It hasn't hit zero yet so there's opportunity!


                    How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?

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                    • #11
                      Tesla has a strong support base of customers and investors who live and die by brand loyalty sort of like the Apple fan boys club. This is what scares me should I decide to short Tesla. I am comfortable though with short selling about $10K worth of Tesla.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by QuarterMillionMan View Post
                        Tesla has a strong support base of customers and investors who live and die by brand loyalty sort of like the Apple fan boys club. This is what scares me should I decide to short Tesla. I am comfortable though with short selling about $10K worth of Tesla.
                        What if it goes back up to $300? That's the problem with short selling: unlimited downside risk. Just buy puts well outside the money.

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                        • #13
                          Good point.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by corn18 View Post

                            What if it goes back up to $300? That's the problem with short selling: unlimited downside risk. Just buy puts well outside the money.

                            You could do a call/put spread option, to take advantage of the volatility. If it is yo-yo-ing because everyone is bipolar on the thing, a bull/bear spread can make you a lot of money because you enjoy the ups and downs.
                            How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?

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                            • #15
                              Tesla has been in "deep cookie" all its life. In fact the company has never been healthier vs just a year ago in which there were REAL doubt if Tesla can even mass produce cars. Go test drive a Model 3 then decide. Learn about their product and all the thesis before going forward. Most importantly, learn what is the TRUTH and distinguish it from the noise (this is literally how you win in which manipulation against bulls and bears is how the big guns make their money). After being a shareholder and doing daily research, I have seen some crazy crazy overly exaggerated nonsense.

                              For example, Tesla's share price recently took a dump because many headlines stated that Tesla's CEO's leak email stated they will only have enough cash to survive 10 more months. Email was then released aftermarket after the stock took a beating. If you read the email, the CEO didn't say any of that, not even close. But you wouldn't know that because not one news article retracted their ...opinions I guess?..on the actual email. This is a company that is constantly attacked with BS like this and it's really a full time job to decipher all the headlines.

                              Example number 2. Morgan Stanley's actual analysis had both bull case, price target, a bear case, and worst case scenario bear case. Bull case is price target of 368, actual price target is around 240. Their worst case scenario is 10 dollars(isn't this the definition of any company have a worst case scenario?..would Google also be 10 dollars if all their datacenters caught on fire and an earthquake took out their headquarters?). CNBC and all the headline ONLY focused on the 10 dollar price target crazy bear case. Stock takes another dump. Not one person mentioned their bull case which is in the report as well.

                              So currently in my opinion the stock price is driven by some actual facts (Q1 miss on deliveries, S/X sales lack luster, trade war) plus a sprinkle of Tesla is doomed from multiple failed and misleading interpretation of leaked letters. It's a great opportunity to bait in people just like you who wants to follow the trend because everyone is saying the sky is falling. Look one Model S caught on fire...DOOOOOMM(but no one talks about the recent news of 168k Hyndai cars that needed to be recalled due to fire risk https://www.syracuse.com/product-rec...ine-fires.html). Honestly I don't recommend touching this stock as a bear or as a bull. You really need to dedicate hours a day figuring out all the headlines and it can cause a headache. I'm not even sure if it's worth it.

                              Disclaimer - I'm a bull on Tesla and have over 6 figures in the stock. I'm down 40k(paper loss/common shares, no margin). Bought 10k more yesterday and will continue to do so mainly because I use the product. Going to order a model Y for my wife. With solar generating all that I need, I have been saving almost 2k/year on gas in my Model 3. My dad who was a conservative diehard Tesla hater is now converted and was shocked at how smooth and fast the acceleration was. Who knows, maybe I'm just a fanboy in an echo chamber. What I do know is that you shouldn't follow trend and the real money making opportunities is to be greedy when other people are fearful. Did that with AMD, made a cool 140k. There was a time I was down 40k with AMD too.
                              Last edited by Singuy; 05-24-2019, 08:59 AM.

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