After 300+ trades in 2011, only ended up 5% lol

[Slug]

BTW, I used a portion of my BAC profits just now to buy 1000 shares of CHTP at $3.24

I love a good gamble!

And, I'm still selling puts on it, albeit at $3 instead of the $5 I was on Friday.

[KTP]

BTW, I used a portion of my BAC profits just now to buy 1000 shares of CHTP at $3.24

I love a good gamble!

[KTP]

I lost/am losing over 180,000$ today... but still positive on the year. sheesh.

g

Ouch! And you think options are risky?!?

[gambler2075]

I lost/am losing over 180,000$ today... but still positive on the year. sheesh.

g

[Slug]

Uh oh... gonna get killed on CHTP today... I can't believe they got the briefing docs early from the FDA, and the Bio CEO presentation is actually a non-fluff presentation. CHTP down to 4 during pre pre market...

g

Crud.

Chelsea Therapeutics CEO to Review NORTHERA(TM) NDA and Provide an Update on Upcoming Advisory Committee Meeting During Presentation at BIO CEO - MarketWatch

[gambler2075]

Uh oh... gonna get killed on CHTP today... I can't believe they got the briefing docs early from the FDA, and the Bio CEO presentation is actually a non-fluff presentation. CHTP down to 4 during pre pre market...

g

[gambler2075]

Not to be Mr Wet Blanket here, but I think one of the hardest things to do is for new traders to compare their returns with the market they were trading in. For example, these noob trading friends of mine had started to trade bios around the new year (NY's resolution ) and were now ecstatic that they were up 15% YTD. What they don't realize is that the markets (and bios specifically) were up HUGE in January, and trading the bios, they were actually underperforming the market with their 15% return. But of course they don't think about that.

Basically, depending on your trading style, with the markets up so huge in January, a good, long-only trader should be up 15-40% in their portfolio for the month of January. Anything less and you are basically underperforming the market.

As they say "Never confuse genius with a bull market"

Don't Confuse Genius With a Bull Market

g

[gambler2075]

Exactly. That's why I was selling puts and buying calls on Friday. When the best alternative is alternative medicine CHTP is in good shape.

Hope the snowboarding was fun.

Actually the best alternative is either midodrine (proamatine) or fludrocortisone.

Good background info:

http://www.ccjm.org/content/77/5/298.full.pdf

There was the issue with the FDA telling Shire that they would pull approval for midodrine as Shire did not conduct the required studies, but now they have agreed to do the trials. Which worries me a bit as if Northera was going to be approved and make midodrine irrelevant, then I would have thought that Shire would have given up on midodrine. The next 12 days are sure going to be interesting, one way or the other.

Business news in brief

"Shire agrees to drug trials

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved a December agreement with drugmaker Shire Pharmaceuticals to conduct two trials to verify benefits of the low-blood pressure medicine midodrine. Brand-named ProAmatine, the drug was rushed to market because there was no other treatment and patients have come to depend on it. It never achieved the clinical test results the FDA requires for full approval. Shire, which has operations in the Philadelphia area, doesn't make the drug anymore, but as the original applicant for approval, it must meet agency regulations. - David Sell"

[gambler2075]

Exactly. That's why I was selling puts and buying calls on Friday. When the best alternative is alternative medicine CHTP is in good shape.

Hope the snowboarding was fun.

Not bad, slight rotator cuff re-injury in the terrain park. Should probably stop going off those jumps without recon-ing them first. Snowboarding mon-tue-thur-fri next week so will be doing limited trading. BPAX PDUFA on Feb 14 should be fun, no position yet.

Shkreli tweeted this on Feb 9th... Hmmm...
Martin Shkreli @MartinShkreli Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
$CHTP i think approval and stock doubles. confident but one still can never be too sure. i probably won't go to AdCom

g

[Slug]

Exactly. That's why I was selling puts and buying calls on Friday. When the best alternative is alternative medicine CHTP is in good shape.

Hope the snowboarding was fun.

[gambler2075]

I would be ASTONISHED if they didn't get approval.

I don't know how you can be so overconfident about Northera when you have other, clearly efficacious alternatives to treat Shy-Drager/MSA.

I have repeatedly emailed CHTP IR asking them to comment on this article but they have ignored me. Very suspicious.

http://bluepoppy.com/cfwebstore/index.cfm/feature/600/research-report-411-shy-drager-syndrome.cfm

g

[gambler2075]

Gambler,

When you say Bio's did well in January, what are you basing this off of? You deal with mostly micro cap bios right? So is there an index that tracks those specifically? Or do you just go off the SPDR biotech?

AFAIK there is not a specific index that tracks those, but I just know that from looking at the individual stocks I follow.

When it comes to the market running up like it did in Jan, the bios (which are very speculative) tend to run up even more (hence the biotech indices running up like 20%+ while the S&P was like 8% or whatever it was).

And the microcap speculative bios run up EVEN MORE, and I was fortunate to be positioned in those during january.

You have to think about the psychology of people that play the bios. The bios are typically companies that don't make a profit (speculative ones) and as a result, when there is exhuberance in the markets and people are willing to take more risk (like when the markets are re-hitting highs of 12500+) then people run to the bios. Conversely, when the markets are pulling back, people are worried about companies actually making profits, or that they will dilute, etc... and the spec bios get killed.

The time to be long the bios is when the markets are bullish, and when they are bearish, better watch out.

g

[gambler2075]

Sold NGSX at 0.58 from 0.80 buy, was hoping for approval. Took a loss on 2500 shares of 559$. Oops.

That being said, it probably bounces back to 0.80 today, lol.

g

[Slug]

Nice little bounce, up ~13% from my call at 20.7...

g

Yeah, I'm in. Got a trader friend with a good track record whose been in and out of this one for months. He's taking the long side so I will too on a short term trade.

[Mr Nice Guy]

Gambler,

When you say Bio's did well in January, what are you basing this off of? You deal with mostly micro cap bios right? So is there an index that tracks those specifically? Or do you just go off the SPDR biotech?