The Biotech Trader Lounge

[KTP]

Took a 23,000$ loss on TZA, sold at 31.44... The trader I follow is actually still holding, but will sell if the S&P gets through 1350 with volume... so far it is holding around there, so he is holding. Lots of bios running recently, makes me think a blowoff top is here (or near).

g

Very bad jobs report this morning....your trader friend may end up being right.

I am on the fence as to if I like this or not. Sitting on $150,000+ cash, but I also don't like seeing my 401K which is heavy equity, go down. I guess I am invested about right when I don't care if the market goes up or goes down. Will be buying a little today on a dip, but saving a good portion in case of a market correction next week.

[gambler2075]

AFFY blew through 7. This was bound to happen to me eventually. Highly unlikely I won't get called out of the shares this time. Oh well...I'll just wait to buy back in.

the NDA response should be by the end of the this month. I give it 90% chance to get accepted (the NDA application, not approval of the drug) with a spike of maybe 1$ on that. There is a 10% chance of an RTF (refusal to file) but I doubt it happens. If so, stock gets crushed to 4. But I think the guys who bought at 5.90 did their homework and have not unloaded yet.

g

[Slug]

AFFY blew through 7. This was bound to happen to me eventually. Highly unlikely I won't get called out of the shares this time. Oh well...I'll just wait to buy back in.

[gambler2075]

Took a 23,000$ loss on TZA, sold at 31.44... The trader I follow is actually still holding, but will sell if the S&P gets through 1350 with volume... so far it is holding around there, so he is holding. Lots of bios running recently, makes me think a blowoff top is here (or near).

g

[Slug]

Yeah CMG scares me like OPEN. Can't believe it's trending back up.

[KTP]

maybe the market figured it out now... 4.64 now... wish I had 3.39 shares, lol

Pain Therapeutics, Inc.: NASDAQ:PTIE quotes & news - Google Finance

Dang that would have been a nice trade.

My Chipotle (CMG) play blew up and I sold my $3.70 puts (5 contracts) for $3.40 yesterday...thank goodness, because today they are trading for $1.50! No worries because I made it up and then some with a one day trade of April 2012 microsoft $24 calls (bought 50 at $3.00 yesterday, sold today for $3.25). Facebook using Skype may have been some of the reason for the slight run, but it could have just been a precurser to earnings.

CMG $325 just pisses me off for some reason. PE 55 seems crazy, but I decided you can't fight stupid, and the market sure is stupid.

Back in my little corner holding cash for awhile.

[gambler2075]

'splain something to me about PTIE.

Market Cap: 148.77 mil
Total Cash: 98.48 mil
Total Debt: 0
Stock price: 3.42
Cash per share: 2.24

Book value per share only 0.87??? why?

maybe the market figured it out now... 4.64 now... wish I had 3.39 shares, lol

Pain Therapeutics, Inc.: NASDAQ:PTIE quotes & news - Google Finance

[KTP]

Now short, via TZA, 33.37. We'll see. More of a swing trade.

g

I am short Chipotle July $310 puts at $3.70. I think I got them at the low (high price of the day for the stock) but they are only good for 14 days so really a swing trade. Even a teeny bit of negative news on this "priced for perfection, PE 52 fast food stock" will cause it to go back under $300 and I could see a 400% gain.

Anyway, only did 5 contracts lol.

[gambler2075]

Now short, via TZA, 33.37. We'll see. More of a swing trade.

g

[Slug]

I'm with you, but it's an hour from close and the trajectory is still up, not even flat. Too frothy for my tastes.

[gambler2075]

boy are we starting to look like fools. I predicted msft was going up, acted on it, and then sold out way too early. I then had the clever idea to sit on all this cash while mr. market just keeps climbing higher.

Oh well.

How much would you have been up if you sold the MSFT calls now? this is on a 60K$ investment, right?

g

p.s. I'm wondering when the pre-4th of july profit taking is going to start... IMO traders might want to sell to protect their profits on this past runup, in case some kind of disaster/terrorist event happens in the next 4 days.

[KTP]

boy are we starting to look like fools. I predicted msft was going up, acted on it, and then sold out way too early. I then had the clever idea to sit on all this cash while mr. market just keeps climbing higher.

Oh well.

[gambler2075]

He is now fully short, via TZA at 34.6. We'll see.

g

He's hurting a bit... but I may start a position in TZA at end of day. 33.28 now.

we'll see.

g

[gambler2075]

So any company can file a paragraph IV on a newly approved drug?

Seems like a good way to make money. Short a drug company, then file for generic on their approved drug. No matter the outcome of the filing, make money on the short position.

I think drug patents get the shaft compared to other IP. A company can spend hundreds of millions doing all of the required studies and trials, then someone else can come along and start selling a $20 version in a few years.

Well, AVNR will probably file a motion, or injunction, or whatever it is called, to protect Nuedexta for 30 months. And there will be a spike on that, but the question is, how long will it take for that to happen?

g

[KTP]

p.s. some crazy trading action on AVNR, I gotta do some snooping around to see what happened today.

Edit: Looks like there was a paragraph IV filed, which means that there might be some generic competition trying to enter with Neudexta...

Paragraph IV Patent Certifications

So any company can file a paragraph IV on a newly approved drug?

Seems like a good way to make money. Short a drug company, then file for generic on their approved drug. No matter the outcome of the filing, make money on the short position.

I think drug patents get the shaft compared to other IP. A company can spend hundreds of millions doing all of the required studies and trials, then someone else can come along and start selling a $20 version in a few years.