Don't buy your hybrid car yet

[pyotr]

Re: Don't buy your hybrid car yet

The corn etc would have been grown anyway, and new farmland is not being produced...golf courses and city sprawl is guaranteeing that.

Why would you think that the quantity of corn (or other crop) grown would remain constant if we (and possibly other parts of the world) were to switch over to E85? Do you think the amount of oil drilling remained constant as we and the world began using petroleum for fuel? What does the number of golf courses and city sprawl have to do with our discussion about ethanol in automobiles? Your line of argument here is unclear. Thanks for calling me uninformed and reactionary, it makes me feel young again.

[Crystallas]

Re: Don't buy your hybrid car yet

You can make ethanol effectively from grass clippings, farmland doesnt pose a long term effect.

[VJW]

Re: Don't buy your hybrid car yet

E85 is a bloated political/pork movement and will never fly because ethanol costs more to produce than gasoline even with it so heavily subsidized.

No it doesn’t.

This was already explained in this thread “Hybrid vehicles isn't the answer....”, POST #18.

In addition, since then I’ve discovered that the wholesale price of ethanol is $.90/GAL and the wholesale price of regular gasoline is more than $2.00/GAL.

Quite viable TODAY.

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[cptacek]

Re: Don't buy your hybrid car yet

I was saying that the amount of farmland would not be increased by growing corn for ethanol. There is a set amount of farmland out there, and you can't make any more of it. The cities are squeezing out the farmers as it is, and so that is what the "golf courses and city sprawl" comment was about.

The type of corn grown might change to take advantage of specific properties, and there might be a change from wheat or soybeans to a different type of corn, but acres in production now vs. later would be the same.

[cptacek]

Re: Don't buy your hybrid car yet

Oh, and farmers are subsidized now. I was saying they should stay subsidized because of the politics.

[msnln]

Re: Don't buy your hybrid car yet

I think ethanol is a big ruse by Bush administration to get people to think something is being done about rising oil prices. First of all, most cars can only take 10-15% ethanol concentration with gasoline. As for E85, have you seen list of cars that can take E85? Of some 200-300 car models available in US, there are only dozen or so E85 cars out there and most are large trucks or SUVs. For these reasons, market for ethanol at this time is very limited.

I have been told cars on the road can be modified to accept larger concentration of Ethanol but ethanol is corrosive to rubber so I would not modify my cars to accomodate and then find out down the road that engine is falling apart due to crumbling rubber parts.

Most viable method, thus seems to be hybrid, esepcially plug in hybrid.

[pyotr]

Re: Don't buy your hybrid car yet

cptacek wrote:

I was saying that the amount of farmland would not be increased by growing corn for ethanol. There is a set amount of farmland out there, and you can't make any more of it. The cities are squeezing out the farmers as it is, and so that is what the "golf courses and city sprawl" comment was about.

There is plenty of land to create into more farmlands (Enormous empty territories in the deep South, midWest, then there are the national parks and forests, the vast majority of Canadian lands for instance). You could always raze cities to create more farmlands and create underground cities to compensate for land shortage also; this could be considered of course if the world were to turn to ethanol-based fuels. By increasing use of ethanol-fuels, I don't see why urban/suburban sprawl would slow down; if anything it could accelerate with farming of new lands and the new towns/cities that could follow. I see no obvious connection between increased use of ethanol-fuels and the slow down of sprawl. In the end, I'm totally on board with the notion that ethanol is much better than petroleum - my point is that electric is even easier/less complicated/and cheaper in the long run. Lithium Batteries last decades and can ultimately be recycled so I wouldn't assume these are going into landfills either. The problem is there is no "Electric vehicle Lobby" in DC as there are farm lobbies and oil lobbies.

VJW wrote:

No it doesn’t. This was already explained in this thread “Hybrid vehicles isn't the answer....”, POST #18. In addition, since then I’ve discovered that the wholesale price of ethanol is $.90/GAL and the wholesale price of regular gasoline is more than $2.00/GAL.

According to the USDA you have to take into account the variable and capitol costs, of which starting new ethanol plants would add $3/gallon and expanding capacity on existing ones would be $1/gallon. The operating costs of the ethanol plants alone would be $0.90/gallon, so you're ending up with about $5/gallon right there at wholesale before any mark-ups. I suspect you got your data from the final cost to the consumer after subtracting out the tax-subsidized portion. No matter how you slice it up, the costs of ethanol-fuels is currently exorbitant. This may improve with technology and hopefully so, but this will take over a decade.

Regarding your impolitic rebuttal ("no it doesn't"), my answer to you is "yes it does." You can claim bias on either side of the issue, but the fact is the farm lobby in this country is about as powerful as the oil lobby - both are totally despicable money pits and ecological disasters. I hope you are familiar with the most hated anti-gasohol study to date, if not here is the abstract:

authors:
(1) David Pimentel, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, 14853
(2) Tad W. Patzek, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, California, 94720

Abstract: Energy outputs from ethanol produced using corn, switchgrass, and wood biomass were each less than the respective fossil energy inputs. The same was true for producing biodiesel using soybeans and sunflower, however, the energy cost for producing soybean biodiesel was only slightly negative compared with ethanol production. Findings in terms of energy outputs compared with the energy inputs were: • Ethanol production using corn grain required 29% more fossil energy than the ethanol fuel produced. • Ethanol production using switchgrass required 50% more fossil energy than the ethanol fuel produced. • Ethanol production using wood biomass required 57% more fossil energy than the ethanol fuel produced. • Biodiesel production using soybean required 27% more fossil energy than the biodiesel fuel produced (Note, the energy yield from soy oil per hectare is far lower than the ethanol yield from corn). • Biodiesel production using sunflower required 118% more fossil energy than the biodiesel fuel produced. Accepted 30 January 2005

[Crystallas]

Re: Don't buy your hybrid car yet

I think ethanol is a big ruse by Bush administration to get people to think something is being done about rising oil prices.

PLEASE. Dont give Bush any credit for something that was happening with or without any of his concern.

[VJW]

Re: Don't buy your hybrid car yet

I was saying that the amount of farmland would not be increased by growing corn for ethanol. There is a set amount of farmland out there, and you can't make any more of it.

But we’re currently paying farmers to NOT grow crops now.

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[VJW]

Re: Don't buy your hybrid car yet

I think ethanol is a big ruse by Bush administration to get people to think something is being done about rising oil prices.

No, like Big Oil, the Bushies are not interested in ethanol. Every so-called “alternative energy” program they have advocated is 20 to 30 years away. It’s a fraud. The Bushies benefit from dig & burn.

As for E85, have you seen list of cars that can take E85? Of some 200-300 car models available in US, there are only dozen or so E85 cars out there and most are large trucks or SUVs.

There are at least two dozen, with more coming along every day:

FFVs

There are already more than 5 million flex-fuel vehicles currently on the road today, and between GM and FORD, they will be adding an additional 600,000 just during 2006.

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[VJW]

Re: Don't buy your hybrid car yet

According to the USDA you have to take into account the variable and capitol costs, of which starting new ethanol plants would add $3/gallon and expanding capacity on existing ones would be $1/gallon. The operating costs of the ethanol plants alone would be $0.90/gallon, so you're ending up with about $5/gallon right there at wholesale before any mark-ups.

No. The CURRENT wholesale price of ethanol is $.90/GAL. That means if you owned a gas station, you could buy gasoline for over $2.00/GAL and ethanol for $.90/GAL. Today.

Regarding your impolitic rebuttal ("no it doesn't")

But that wasn’t my “rebuttal”. I provided a link to another thread, which had the links to the Department of Agriculture and the Department of Energy, which have stipulated that for every one unit of energy used to produce ethanol and its accompanying co-products, 1.67 units of energy results. Whereas, for every unit of energy expended in gasoline production, only 0.79 units of energy results in the form of gasoline.

I hope you are familiar with the most hated anti-gasohol study to date, if not here is the abstract:

Quite. If you check, It’s been widely debunked. But it hasn’t stopped Big Oil from still peddling that meme.

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[pyotr]

Re: Don't buy your hybrid car yet

VJ wrote:

provided a link to another thread, which had the links to the Department of Agriculture and the Department of Energy, which have stipulated that for every one unit of energy used to produce ethanol and its accompanying co-products, 1.67 units of energy results.

Your links are to 5+ year-old and 7+ year-old studies and references which don't apply anymore. Since then people like the good professors at Cornell and California have published newer data (last year). The people trying to "debunk" their studies are people with monetary incentives to do so like the corn/farm lobby and manufacturers of ethanol plants. I hereby debunk the debunkers.

Your wholesale price of ethanol ($0.90) is wrong as I've already explained clearly. Give me another bid or show us the evidence (show me the money).

[msnln]

Re: Don't buy your hybrid car yet

VJW, if you read the link you gave closely, most models precede with "Selected" and I only count three models that are fully compatible with E85. I don't buy that there are 5 million flexfuel vehicles on the road but even if that number is correct, that only represent about 2.5% of cars in the US (204 million cars in the US). The promises of ethanol reminds me of 1999-2000 when dotcoms were going to be the solution to all businesses.

[msnln]

Re: Don't buy your hybrid car yet

Toyota seems to be banking on the hybrid technology but are also coming up with flexfuel vehicle for Brazil next year that will run on 100% ethanol.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/13/AR2006061300213.html

[Crystallas]

Re: Don't buy your hybrid car yet

Toyota seems to be banking on the hybrid technology but are also coming up with flexfuel vehicle for Brazil next year that will run on 100% ethanol.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...061300213.html

Thats the national standard in Brazil. Otherwise they are SOL.