February '25 Inflation highest in a year

[disneysteve]

Yesterday I shorted Delta airlines. Today with the market rebounding, I decided to buy to cover all those Delta shares and took a $15 loss.

Market timing is a dangerous game.

[QuarterMillionMan]

Yesterday I shorted Delta airlines. Today with the market rebounding, I decided to buy to cover all those Delta shares and took a $15 loss.

[disneysteve]

I thought it was interesting what the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said about equities (not political). Factoid, the top 10% of high net worth individuals own 88% of all the equities. The next 40% owns 12% of all equities. The remaining 50% don't own equities and the majority of these people are in debt.

We throw that stat out periodically. It's very misleading, though. When they say 50% own no stock, that implies that they shouldn't care what the market does, but that isn't true. Many of that 50% actually do own stock and don't realize it. Maybe it's in their 401k. Maybe it's held by their pension plan. We all know that the average American isn't well educated when it comes to finance. "I don't own any stocks. All of my retirement plan is in a 2050 fund" not realizing that their fund is probably 80% stocks. And even people who truly have no direct investment in stocks still need to care what's happening in the market. If their employer stock is tanking, that may lead to pay freezes, hiring freezes, cancellation of expansion plans, layoffs, and ultimately closure. I agree that Wall St isn't Main St but they are far more linked than people tend to realize.

[ua_guy]

I thought it was interesting what the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said about equities (not political). Factoid, the top 10% of high net worth individuals own 88% of all the equities. The next 40% owns 12% of all equities. The remaining 50% don't own equities and the majority of these people are in debt.

The statement echoes partially what I hear out and about. A lot of people have said "screw the market" because we're getting revenge on all the countries that treat us unfairly! Yeah! Statements like that don't appear to take into account how "the market" is probably responsible for any pension they may eventually get, the current health of their employer and it's ability to borrow capital, and employment. There's this whole world around them to which they appear oblivious, yet they'd be screwed without it. Kind of like cats, really.

[QuarterMillionMan]

I thought it was interesting what the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said about equities (not political). Factoid, the top 10% of high net worth individuals own 88% of all the equities. The next 40% owns 12% of all equities. The remaining 50% don't own equities and the majority of these people are in debt.

[ua_guy]

Only a 300 pt DJIA drop today. I may have had a knee jerk reaction today transferring my $92,000 large cap fund out and into the stable income fund. The tariffs must be working where 50 countries want to get 0% tariffs and free trade. Equities may rebound soon when I thought carnage was coming.

Many of the tariffs announced aren't actually reciprocal, they're just punitive. And that's not even counting the tariffs on the islands which are only inhabited by penguins.

The "White house" mentioned that 50 countries have "come to the table". For what? What are they going to give us? That's one of the problems I have with all of this. The punishment is real, but the request for what the White house wants is completely unknown. Meanwhile, it's taking our economy down with it in a very real way.

[QuarterMillionMan]

Buy high, sell low. That's a great plan.

Ouch, lol.

[QuarterMillionMan]

Only a 300 pt DJIA drop today. I may have had a knee jerk reaction today transferring my $92,000 large cap fund out and into the stable income fund. The tariffs must be working where 50 countries want to get 0% tariffs and free trade. Equities may rebound soon when I thought carnage was coming.

[disneysteve]

I'm following in ua_guy's & Snydley's footsteps and dumping my equities. In my 457 government retirement plan I transferred 100% of my large cap fund into a stable income fund

Buy high, sell low. That's a great plan.

[QuarterMillionMan]

Just placed a market order to short sell 14 shares of Delta airlines (DAL) at $37.24. I'll be watching this trade like a hawk and if pummels me, I'm getting out fast.

[QuarterMillionMan]

I'm following in ua_guy's & Snydley's footsteps and dumping my equities. In my 457 government retirement plan I transferred 100% of my large cap fund into a stable income fund (annualized return 4%). This stock market is on shaky grounds.

[ua_guy]

I'm not sure, but I think I heard this story in church before. Things will be painful, but you have to have faith, right?. God might kill your children and make you blind, but, it's for a good reason, you just have to trust! And if you don't, you're a horrible person. Just like the economy is starting to go to crap, you have to trust that losing your life savings is the right thing, and there's a plan behind it all.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

Luckyrobin pointed out we're in a recession by the typical terms. But are we headed to a depression?

[ua_guy]

Yep, March Jobs report was good, although Jan/Feb were revised down. Inflation ticked higher, and so did unemployment. Traditional economic indicators are moving in a direction that indicates the economy is starting to change negatively. Consumer sentiment/confidence is very low. With tariffs enacted, the months ahead will be very telling just how far things are going to turn for the worse.

[disneysteve]

The economy is doing very well with prices coming down.

The latest jobs report was good, but most other economic indicators are not. Inflation is up, not down, as posted in other threads. Tens of thousands of Federal workers have been fired. Consumer sentiment is the lowest in over a decade. All expectations are for a recession this year. Companies have already announced layoffs due to the tariffs including Stellantis and Whirlpool though I'm sure there will be others if there aren't already. The taxes/tariffs are going to sharply decrease growth and revenue for US companies. So I'm not sure what you are seeing to make you think the economy is "doing very well". And remember, most of the reports we see are a couple of months delayed so they pre-date most of the Trump administration's contribution. It will be interesting to see what the April numbers look like when we get them in June.