2008 Economy Predictions

[sweeps]

What do you think is in store for the economy in the next year?

[jIM_Ohio]

I am preparing for a recession rivaling what was seen in 1991. Massive job losses and business cutbacks.

[Broken Arrow]

I'm no economist, but my opinion is that we're way overdue for a recession.

However, I've read some articles that suggest a couple of credit sources are still available for the oblivious consumer, such as student loans and retirement funds.... So, for 2008 at least, current consumer borrowing could still hold out. But that doesn't mean the market isn't rife for at least a minor correction. So, that's what I voted....

I do think a recession is inevitable though, and will happen sooner rather than later.

[InDebtInDC]

Major recession coming up. I'm already starting to see it in my industry.

[fam5d07]

I dont think so, third quarter GDP did better than expected, and that was with the housing and sub prime problems. I think it will get better next year but everything takes time

[PRICEPLUS]

I think we are heading for the other end of the cycle. Recession it is!

[humandraydel]

I think the US economy will slow down a bit more in 2008 but global growth will keep us out of a recession.

[mariogreymist]

I've seen some slowdown, but nothing alarming. Frankly, the slowdown I have seen has been as much a result of failures of management to adapt to a fast-changing industry as general economic woes. The overall growth potential still exists in the economy, but the real estate and credit woes will have an impact on the retail sector. Industry and information companies will weather the storm, but I am glad to not be in construction right now. The overall impact will be small, but it will be huge for those who are in the path of the storm.

Isn't that just the nature of storms, though?

[Scanner]

I didn't see a "moderate correction" as a choice so in the spirit of the post, I voted for "major correction" rounding up.

Now. . .why do I think that?

First of all, there are some factors that indicate we are headed for economic expansion (in fact, the economy did expand last quarter 4%, I think). We are exporting more goods and services and unemployment remains low. That is usually not a recession. My industry, healthcare, looks strong.

But I tend to be very simplistic on what I base economic performance on and it's this:

Oirl.

I think if oil hits $100/barrel, it will depress the entire global economy and the way supply/inventories are, it looks like we are in for that. In fact, there could be a sense of panic among traders.

I think our whole world economy is based on oil. I think you can ignore everything else - liquidity in the market, housing supply, etc. Just look at oil. When oil is low - there's economic expansion. When oil is high, there's economic retraction.

I could kick myself for not hedging my portfolio with oil and picking silver instead, although I think silver will do okay (it's up about 8.5% for me).

[InDebtInDC]

Originally Posted by Scanner

My industry, healthcare, looks strong.

Can you cite a period when health care wasn't looking strong?

[Scanner]

I guess it's a little vague to say "Healthcare looks strong." It's like saying "Technology looks strong."

Well. . .what kind of technology? Computers? Alternative energy? Video games?

The same with healthcare. Do you mean healthcare worker? Hospitals? Ins. co.'s?

Jobs for paraprofessionals and professionals have looked bleak in the mid-90's and early 00's because of managed care contracting payments. And the jury is still out on physicians. DisneySteve could speak a little better to it. Something like 50% of physicians over 55 are planning on leaving practice within 3 years. There won't be enough newbies to fill their shoes.

That's good or bad depending on who you are. For the physician, it means higher pay/benefits. For the patient, it means longer wait times.

The main demographic is America is aging and they will want healthcare. They'll want it delivered and financed.

I think the industry within healthcare that may face a hit is actually the pharmaceutical companies. They have basically sold, sold, and sold their way into American consumers. They have maximally penetrated the minds of Americans with 1 in 3 commercials on Primetime TV being a drug.

I don't think there's too much more to go. And insurance companies have made that a #1 or 2 target for cost containment. So. . .I think there's a long overdue consumer backlash. Some of my elderly patients are coming in on 10-15 drugs. . .I'm not in a position to question every one clinically but I think American society is going to start to say enough is enough. Medicating shouldn't be a lifestyle.

So. . .you may see Glaxo, Astra-Zenica, Smith-Kline, etc. start receding.

Just a thought. I could be wrong.

Never doubt Americans penchant to live a better life through chemistry.

Anyway, it's all oil - and actually pharmaceuticals are often based on petroleum products.

It could be argued we will have to cut back on drugs, if oil reaches $100-150/barrel.

[Broken Arrow]

Here's a related article on this subject.

Bottom line: 2008's growth is going to be mode, but recession seems unlikely.

[Scanner]

The Pundits always say that every year:

"Moderate economic growth is expected."

They never say, "Hey this year we are going to have a correction" or "Hold onto your hats - we are going to have an explosive year."

Really. . .read what they say - they say the same thing every year.

[sweeps]

Yeah, the safe thing to say is "moderate growth". 80% of the time you'll be right or close to right.

The board seems to be on the pessimistic side of things. I agree... I think the housing crunch, the credit crunch, accelerating inflation and accelerating pessimism will push us (and then the world) into recession. But I've been wrong before.

[vsjhoc]

Originally Posted by Scanner

The Pundits always say that every year:

"Moderate economic growth is expected."

They never say, "Hey this year we are going to have a correction" or "Hold onto your hats - we are going to have an explosive year."

Really. . .read what they say - they say the same thing every year.

Just like the weather forecasters:

"Partly sunny."

"Chance of showers."

[Broken Arrow]

Well, while nobody can predict the future, I do believe in this:

Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.


As I mentioned earlier, I think a recession is inevitable. It may not happen next year or the year after that... but soon. And when it happens, while my portfolio may take a hit, I plan to buy like crazy.

[jIM_Ohio]

layoffs are happening, albeit quiet.

watch employment numbers.

[Aleta]

We all need to start becoming one nation again and not pulling each politcal party apart. We need to start demanding more of our politicians. Firstly, that they put USA first and not other outside interests. Maybe it would be good to start buying USA products again and start contributing to our economy by visiting the states in our country. We can add to our own economy by supporting it.

I' m looking at items that I've had for so long now that says USA. Maybe we need to start buying USA again. It's much like the stock market; it will correct itself without very little help.

I do see some bumps in the road, but we all need to band together as the great country that our forefathers imagined.

[sweeps]

Originally Posted by Aleta

We all need to start becoming one nation again and not pulling each politcal party apart. We need to start demanding more of our politicians. Firstly, that they put USA first and not other outside interests. Maybe it would be good to start buying USA products again and start contributing to our economy by visiting the states in our country. We can add to our own economy by supporting it.

I' m looking at items that I've had for so long now that says USA. Maybe we need to start buying USA again. It's much like the stock market; it will correct itself without very little help.

I do see some bumps in the road, but we all need to band together as the great country that our forefathers imagined.

Interesting post, probably deserves its own thread.

I bought a Honda Odyssey... is that buying a USA product? 100% American labor, 80% American parts, built in Alabama. And it will likely last much longer than an equivalent Ford or Chevy will.

I would change things up a little bit and say instead of "Buy USA", "Buy less CRAP!" We (as a country) buy tons and tons of complete CRAP day in and day out. We are obsessed with CRAP. We borrow from other countries to buy CRAP, and then throw the CRAP away, and then we buy more CRAP to replace the CRAP. We've become hopelessly dependent on other countries (and on our own government) on providing us with CRAP. CRAP goods, CRAP services. We need to stop consuming CRAP and start producing useful, reliable goods and services that other countries WANT to buy and we ourselves are proud to buy.

[Thrif-t]

Originally Posted by sweeps

Interesting post, probably deserves its own thread.

I bought a Honda Odyssey... is that buying a USA product? 100% American labor, 80% American parts, built in Alabama. And it will likely last much longer than an equivalent Ford or Chevy will.

I would change things up a little bit and say instead of "Buy USA", "Buy less CRAP!" We (as a country) buy tons and tons of complete CRAP day in and day out. We are obsessed with CRAP. We borrow from other countries to buy CRAP, and then throw the CRAP away, and then we buy more CRAP to replace the CRAP. We've become hopelessly dependent on other countries (and on our own government) on providing us with CRAP. CRAP goods, CRAP services. We need to stop consuming CRAP and start producing useful, reliable goods and services that other countries WANT to buy and we ourselves are proud to buy.

Here here