Recession over

[tzsgti]

Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay - Political News - FOXNews.com

Do you agree?

I think its way to early to say.

[Broken Arrow]

From what I've read so far, some economists are only hinting that it may be over. Most don't want to stake their reputation on it and go on the record for such a call. Personally, I'm waiting for NBER. When they say it's over, then I'll believe it's over.

In the mean time, this exercise of calling recession "over" or "not over" has very little practical value to me anyways. I'm still taking the same basic strategy of evaluating my economic environment, one day at a time, and see what kind of opportunities I can find to move along and move ahead.

[EEinNJ]

Economists define a recession by several consecutive quarters of negative growth. The data is backward looking, so they tell us when we're in a recession long after we've empirically figure that out. Likewise, we'll know it's over when people start getting hired, not fired, are able to buy a house instead of having it foreclosed, etc. And the economists will tell us 3 months later. For now, it's just wishful thinking.

[tzsgti]

Originally Posted by EEinNJ

Economists define a recession by several consecutive quarters of negative growth. The data is backward looking, so they tell us when we're in a recession long after we've empirically figure that out. Likewise, we'll know it's over when people start getting hired, not fired, are able to buy a house instead of having it foreclosed, etc. And the economists will tell us 3 months later. For now, it's just wishful thinking.

100% agree

[Broken Arrow]

Yes, that is what the NBER does, although 3 months is only a basic rule of thumb. They will take any amount of time they deem necessary to analyze and draw conclusions on the overall economic condition.

So yes, we won't know the recession is over until it's well over. Anything beforehand is only a best guess at the future to come.

About the only general consensus among talking heads right now is that we are in for a complicated recovery. No real consensus as to how or when the recession will end. However, I wouldn't be surprised if, a year or two from now, we're still here asking that very same question....

[feh]

Depends on what you mean by the "recession". Using the technical definition, I'd say there's a 50:50 chance we'll have a positive GDP in the 3rd quarter.

[poundwise]

No, it can't be over yet. We didn't have the 2nd Great Depression yet.



Fact is, if you listen to talking-head economists you will think the world is ending in one quarter and that prosperity is just around the corner in the next. Of course, you could find those who said that there was no problem as we dove into the current recession and you can find people now who are still stocking up on ammo and water.

[Joan.of.the.Arch]

Originally Posted by poundwise

No, it can't be over yet. We didn't have the 2nd Great Depression yet.



Fact is, if you listen to talking-head economists you will think the world is ending in one quarter and that prosperity is just around the corner in the next. Of course, you could find those who said that there was no problem as we dove into the current recession and you can find people now who are still stocking up on ammo and water.

I'm the worrier type, but not the warrior type, so I do have some supplies, but no ammo! Also being the worrier type, I answered a thread way back in summer 2006 about who thinks they see recession on the horizon. Well I don't have any sophistication about economics, but there just seemed to be so much senseless stuff going on that I did not see how it could possibly be sustained. So a voted for recession's likelihood. For years I had been doing an incredulous, neck-snapping, double-take on the way the real estate market was going up and the way imports were being consumed. So yeah, as the worrier and person who basically believes in Malthusian dynamics, I thought I could see recession. Funny thing is, I do not even know how to spot recovery, especially if recovery is going to include all the crazy stuff that got us into recession in the first place.

[Junebaby]

Last month Husband was watching a TV show about the stock market and they were interviewing Warren Buffett about the recovery. He said this: "You can't produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant."
I made this my signature for my email.

[Snodog]

Yep this recession is getting a little long in the tooth. According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute the end of it is imminent if it hasn't already happened.

But I wouldn't break out the bling quite just yet as unemployment is most likely going to be high for a number of years.

[GREENBACK]

As many here know, the unemployment situation is going to last for a while. Many people are going to have to pursue career changes. Employers are going to be hesitant about hiring new employees until they're certain the economy is solidly rebounding. Unemployment always lags behind as we all know.

Is this recession over? I don't know and don't know anyone who knows, which is true for every recession. We'll know when history tells us. We're surely showing clear signs of recovery and that's all that we can confirm at this time.

I'm just staying the course. I didn't get out of the market when it bottomed and am not worried about things in the near future. All those who did panic are getting back in which is why we're now seeing the recent gains. Maybe I should say their loss, my gain.

[disneysteve]

I happen to think the recession is over, or at least the worst of it. The stock market has surged this year. The unemployment rate seems to be leveling off. I'm not hearing so much about the housing market anymore.

I think 6 months from now, we're going to be looking back and seeing that somewhere around now was the beginnings of the recovery.

[cptacek]

My personal recession is over! Got my first paycheck today!

[Broken Arrow]

Originally Posted by disneysteve

I happen to think the recession is over, or at least the worst of it. The stock market has surged this year. The unemployment rate seems to be leveling off. I'm not hearing so much about the housing market anymore.

I think 6 months from now, we're going to be looking back and seeing that somewhere around now was the beginnings of the recovery.

I agree the worst of it is over, although I think much of this has to do with the artificial support and subsidy that the governments are placing, and at a great price. Eventually, that life support has to be removed and the patient has to be able to function on its own. Then there's the issue of the cost of hospitalization that we will have to pay somehow.

I also read that Bernanke is still gearing up to buy even more MBS, along with the bonds and treasuries-- in the hundreds of billions of dollars-- to further stabilize the economy. Clearly, if they are planning to do that, it means the current economic condition is still fragile and tentative.

Still, it's true we may recover yet, and hopefully quickly, though I think that remains to be seen. Regardless of the outcome, I think Bernanke, Paulson, and Geithner have put up a valiant effort, and we owe them our thanks. Indeed, I would even go as far as to say that perhaps Bernanke is the right man in the right place at the right time.

Originally Posted by cptacek

My personal recession is over! Got my first paycheck today!

When it's all said and done, that's what really matters!

[cptacek]

Originally Posted by Broken Arrow

When it's all said and done, that's what really matters!

This has to happen millions of times before we are out of the woods...I think it is going to be quite a while for the country to recover.

[maat55]

We are in the eye of the hurricane, the calm before the storm. We are fundamentally still in bad shape. Debt levels are still high, unemployment is still rising, forclosures are on the rise, competition with the world is still against us, the government is near monetizing the debt, the dollar is losing value.

Someone had to supply the doom and gloom.

[tripods68]

We are far away from ending this recession. Until hiring demands becomes greater numbers than actual unemployment figures AND GDP growth at 3% this recession won't end. While the market averted total market collapsed it takes at least 5+ years to recover. We are maybe 2 or 3 years away from recovery.