$300 a barrel oil not far off

[jeffrey]

Human beings are a predictable bunch and we tend to wait until things get to a painful crisis mode before taking drastic action. My question is why does it always have to get to that point? Take the most recent run-up of oil prices, when crude hit $147 a barrel and gasoline was trading around $5.

As prices reached nosebleed levels, the general public was in a great deal of pain and they acted accordingly. There was an outcry for more alternatives, more refineries, conservation, infrastructure investment etc. Everything from clean-coal technology to nuclear was on the table.

Fast forward to today, with crude prices at around $38 and gas back below $2, and it's a very different picture. No pain means no gain in solving the problem.

Position yourself now for $300 a barrel oil - MarketWatch

[Broken Arrow]

Interesting....

$300 is a very bold proclamation, with the only rationale being, "Whatever caused $150 is still there."

I suppose I don't disagree with the author in that I think the global oil demands has dropped dramatically, and I believe that it will pick up again eventually.

But I also think that part of the reason for $150 barrel crudes had to do with a lot of speculation causing a bubble. Would global demands and speculation double that some day?

And that's only the demand side of the equation. What about the supply side? For example, OPEC has quite a bit of control in terms of how much oil they wish to introduce into the market. Currently, they've cut supplies as much as 2 billion barrels a day to try to buoy the price of current crude. One could also postulate that perhaps the "reasonable estimate" of crude belongs somewhere between more like $50 and $150, and not $300.

$300 would also severely drag down the global economy, as demonstrated by $100+ crude.

Like the author though, I hope we will not forget the oil spike, and will make every effort to make fuel efficiency a more permanent mindshare in the American economy....

[GREENBACK]

Crude prices will obviously go up but to say it will reach $300 soon after the recovery is very speculative. The prices were artificially high at $140 and that's a long way from $300. We may get there one day but a lot can happen to derail this.