Economists: Recession is a given this year

[sweeps]

"The recession is likely to be a serious one," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

Economists say 2008 will be a year to forget

[jIM_Ohio]

He might be right, he might be wrong.

If we are about to enter a recession, there are 3-4 ways to profit-

1) maintain employment any way possible
2) people with cash should be able to invest in low priced investments
3) bonds should generate good returns (rates go down, value of bonds goes up)
4) stay out of debt as much as possible, or transfer debt to lower rate cc/loans or other low rate options.

But I would caution that thinking various signs point to a recession. Companies are profitable, and they are no longer expanding business. This does put a negative spin on "employment numbers" (job growth slows and unemployment does not drop, might even go up), but this does not mean we are in a recession, it means we are in a mature economy. When inventories go up, then the R word might be more meaningful.

We won't know for sure if we are in a recession until AFTER it's over.

[sweeps]

Originally Posted by jIM_Ohio

He might be right, he might be wrong.

Isn't that how it always works?

Just for the record, it's not just one economist's opinion. Most of the analysts at the AEA believe there will be a recession -- it's just a question of how bad.

[Aleta]

I've heard some on the broadcasts said that usually the recession is over before people realize there was one..

[jIM_Ohio]

Yes- you cannot call it until we are out. For example how do we know if this will be a recession or a depression?