After 300+ trades in 2011, only ended up 5% lol

[Slug]

Originally Posted by gambler2075

Considering buying DMND here afterhours at 20.7... holy jeebus

Diamond Foods, Inc.: NASDAQMND quotes & news - Google Finance

Ack! From 92 in Sept. to this. Where is the bottom?

[gambler2075]

Long CHTP, in decent size, from 4.94 average. May modify position at any time.

FDA Adcom briefing docs released feb 21, which could be a negative, but imo there is a good chance of a positive adcom panel vote Feb 23, which would gap the price up. May hold for either the runup into adcom review, or beyond.

Here's some DD:
Chelsea Therapeutics: Likely to Double on Safe, Proven Asset - Seeking Alpha
(note this is from good 'ol Shkreli in 2011 (google him))
http://circ.ahajournals.org/content/108/6/724.full.pdf
L-DOPS - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



Disclaimer: If you buy CHTP because of this post, your favorite molecule will become L-dihydroxyphenylserine. And you may lose money.

g

[gambler2075]

Originally Posted by Slug

Ack! From 92 in Sept. to this. Where is the bottom?

IMO that 20.7 was very likely it.

That being said, no position, and don't plan on getting one.

g

[KTP]

The one tiny complaint I have about the biotech threads is that only a couple of you guys understand them, because you don't post very much detail on how a company you are interested in might succeed or fail. Some of them are easier to understand...like I could grasp that AFFY at $5 was a decent risk, since it had $5 in cash on hand, but for any other XYZ biotech that you are planning on putting at risk $200,000, I would like to hear why you think the FDA decision will go one way or the other. It is interesting and makes it more fun to track the results. If you don't have time to go into that type detail, I understand.

[gambler2075]

I of course would want to know these things if I were reading this thread, however, I will state that over the years I have been trading, I have learned certain things about stocks that might make them more likely to move one way or the other. And lots of things that don't tend to correlate with stock movements. And, as trading is a zero-sum game, if you look at things from my perspective, the more my techniques are known, then the less effective they will be. I can tell you that before I go into a long position I have done at least 40-100 hours of fundamental research, which usually comes to about 15-20 pages of text (I have sent these things to my trading buddies many times in the past). Also the research that is publicly available is typically very trivial. In order to do deep DD you need to seek out basically all information that is available anywhere on the internet to really understand the DD. Most of this information never becomes published for the masses (yahoo finance, google finance, seekingalpha, etc), in my experience.

In other words, I have to decline to elaborate what specifically I am looking at in this situation. I will throw out those 4 letters but it is up to anyone to decide if they want to buy, sell, short, or sit on the sidelines.

Sorry.

g

[KTP]

deleted double post

[KTP]

Fair enough. I seriously doubt though that anyone on the other side of your trade (or even anyone on the same side) would be online here at savingadvice. The most we are likely to put into a sub $1 biotech stock is like $2000 or so. That is in the noise figure for your type of trades.

I have some deeper information about Nokia than what is available on yahoo, but I also choose to keep that to myself so I understand where you are coming from.

[Slug]

Originally Posted by gambler2075

Long CHTP, in decent size, from 4.94 average. May modify position at any time.

FDA Adcom briefing docs released feb 21, which could be a negative, but imo there is a good chance of a positive adcom panel vote Feb 23, which would gap the price up. May hold for either the runup into adcom review, or beyond.

Here's some DD:
Chelsea Therapeutics: Likely to Double on Safe, Proven Asset - Seeking Alpha
(note this is from good 'ol Shkreli in 2011 (google him))
http://circ.ahajournals.org/content/108/6/724.full.pdf
L-DOPS - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



Disclaimer: If you buy CHTP because of this post, your favorite molecule will become L-dihydroxyphenylserine. And you may lose money.

g

I know a decent amount about this company and the molecule. I bid on a project for them last year. Ironically, I actually added it to my my buy list yesterday. I would be ASTONISHED if they didn't get approval. I just don't know how much it will run up into AdCom meeting and whether that run has already started or if I can get in at the mid-4's. I will probably take a small position today and then DCA in on dips. I will also be selling much if not all prior to the meeting (probably).

[KTP]

I just put $26,500 into that Nokia trade I mentioned, except I got it filled at $4.42 instead of $4.47!

Bought 6000 shares of Nokia and sold 60 July $5 call contracts for net debit of $4.42

When/if my shares get called away (very likely will happen before May), I will make a profit of $0.58/$4.42 = 13.1% or a little over $3400 profit. If I am not called away before the May ex-dividend date, I will get a dividend on the 6000 shares of around $1600.

Sweet.

[gambler2075]

If you own a biotech and are happy with the performance in January, caveat emptor...

A Very Big BTK January | BIOtechNow

Trade accordingly.
g

[gambler2075]

Originally Posted by gambler2075

IMO that 20.7 was very likely it.

That being said, no position, and don't plan on getting one.

g

Nice little bounce, up ~13% from my call at 20.7...

g

[gambler2075]

Originally Posted by Slug

Are you expecting approval or just playing volatility? It doesn't sound good from what I'm reading. NGSX NeurogesX FDA Advisory Committee Behavioral Analysis » FDA Tracker

Got killed on the rejection here, after making 1800$ on the bounce from 0.78 to 0.87.
I had rebought at 0.795, now down 23%.
Fortunately it was just 2.5K shares, lol.

g

[gambler2075]

Originally Posted by gambler2075

Ok I am back. Sold my NGSX at 0.87 for the quick 2K$ from yesterday.

I'm long a bio in size but not sure if my buddies are in so I can't post it yet.
The past month had such a huge rally in the indices, and as a result the spec bios did too.

Year to date my portfolio is up about 95%... Really happy with that, as I was at about -10% last year... however I can't believe I left 150K$ on the table by not sticking with my original BPAX plan... was long 580K shares at 0.65... sigh...

I feel the markets are way overbought and I am seeing signs of spec bio blowoff tops, so I am proceeding with caution here.

g

As I said in this post, I think we are at, or extremely close to the top here. THE TOP. As in, the market pulls back like 1000 points on the Dow. I am hoping that we run higher, but IMO being long is very risky here, at 12890. It is amazing how the greek crisis keeps getting spun by media into positive news. It's not that they are almost defaulting, but it is that they are SOOOOOO CLOSE to a deal, so the shorts are running scared.

TVIX also started running up past 2 days, despite the overall markets running slightly higher. Bios are starting to pull back. BTW, when TVIX ran, big time, it ran from like 15$ to 100$ in a couple of months.

If you are long... well, good luck. Take profits when you have them, imo.

g

BTW: As for bio trading, this changes things as you must be very nimble with shorter time frames as IMO the bio stocks are going to be fighting a downdraft in the overall markets if/when the markets pull back. And when that happens, people start becoming more risk adverse, and spec bios that have no products are the ones that are killed the most.

If you notice, the bios did extremely well in January, but that magnitude of a move is not sustainable. Much more likely is a significant reversion-to-mean type pullback. That is what I am waiting for in the few bios that I am still interested in.

[gambler2075]

Originally Posted by Slug

I know a decent amount about this company and the molecule. I bid on a project for them last year. Ironically, I actually added it to my my buy list yesterday. I would be ASTONISHED if they didn't get approval. I just don't know how much it will run up into AdCom meeting and whether that run has already started or if I can get in at the mid-4's. I will probably take a small position today and then DCA in on dips. I will also be selling much if not all prior to the meeting (probably).

IMO you will never get 4.50's. I would absolutely fall out my chair and have a grand mal seizure if that happened. 4.70's... well, MAYBE... but imo doubtful. There is not a ton of time before Feb 21 (when the briefing docs come out) or Feb 23 (the Adcom vote). There IS a decent amount of time before the actual FDA decision in March, 3/28.

That being said, a negative briefing doc tanks it to 3.50... Not sure what I will be doing here.

g

[Mr Nice Guy]

Gambler,

When you say Bio's did well in January, what are you basing this off of? You deal with mostly micro cap bios right? So is there an index that tracks those specifically? Or do you just go off the SPDR biotech?

[Slug]

Originally Posted by gambler2075

Nice little bounce, up ~13% from my call at 20.7...

g

Yeah, I'm in. Got a trader friend with a good track record whose been in and out of this one for months. He's taking the long side so I will too on a short term trade.

[gambler2075]

Sold NGSX at 0.58 from 0.80 buy, was hoping for approval. Took a loss on 2500 shares of 559$. Oops.

That being said, it probably bounces back to 0.80 today, lol.

g

[gambler2075]

Originally Posted by Mr Nice Guy

Gambler,

When you say Bio's did well in January, what are you basing this off of? You deal with mostly micro cap bios right? So is there an index that tracks those specifically? Or do you just go off the SPDR biotech?

AFAIK there is not a specific index that tracks those, but I just know that from looking at the individual stocks I follow.

When it comes to the market running up like it did in Jan, the bios (which are very speculative) tend to run up even more (hence the biotech indices running up like 20%+ while the S&P was like 8% or whatever it was).

And the microcap speculative bios run up EVEN MORE, and I was fortunate to be positioned in those during january.

You have to think about the psychology of people that play the bios. The bios are typically companies that don't make a profit (speculative ones) and as a result, when there is exhuberance in the markets and people are willing to take more risk (like when the markets are re-hitting highs of 12500+) then people run to the bios. Conversely, when the markets are pulling back, people are worried about companies actually making profits, or that they will dilute, etc... and the spec bios get killed.

The time to be long the bios is when the markets are bullish, and when they are bearish, better watch out.

g

[gambler2075]

Originally Posted by Slug

I would be ASTONISHED if they didn't get approval.

I don't know how you can be so overconfident about Northera when you have other, clearly efficacious alternatives to treat Shy-Drager/MSA.

I have repeatedly emailed CHTP IR asking them to comment on this article but they have ignored me. Very suspicious.

http://bluepoppy.com/cfwebstore/inde...r-syndrome.cfm



g

[Slug]

Exactly. That's why I was selling puts and buying calls on Friday. When the best alternative is alternative medicine CHTP is in good shape.

Hope the snowboarding was fun.