So Much For The Experts

[VJW]

* October 1999: James Glassman, author Dow 36,000

"What is dangerous is for Americans not to be in the market. We're going to reach a point where stocks are correctly priced, and we think that's 36,000 ... It's not a bubble. Far from it. The stock market is undervalued."


* December 1999: Joseph Battipaglia, market analyst

"Some fear a burst Internet bubble, but our analysis shows that Internet companies account for only 7% of the overall Nasdaq market cap but carry expected long-term growth rates twice those of other rapidly growing segments within tech." (The Internet Index lost two-thirds of it’s value in the next six months)


* December 2000: Jeffrey Applegate, Lehman strategist

"The bulk of the correction is behind us, so now is the time to be offensive, not defensive." (The bulk of the correction was to come)


* December 2000: Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan

"The three- to five-year earnings projections of more than a thousand analysts, though exhibiting some signs of flattening in recent months, have generally held firm. Such expectations, should they persist, bode well for continued capital deepening and sustained growth." (Another in a long string of great calls by Greenie)


* January 2001: Suze Orman, financial guru

"In the low 60s here, I think the QQQ, they're a buy. They may go down, but if you dollar-cost average, where you put money every single month into them, I think, in the long run, it's the way to play the Nasdaq." (The QQQ fell 60% further)


* April 2001: Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs

"The time to be nervous was a year ago. The S&P then was overvalued, it's now undervalued." (The S&P continued down for another five years)

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[Broken Arrow]

It's not hard to tear down other people's ideas through the power of hindsight. That's not to say I disagree with what is being presented. Rather, to me, this does nothing more than point out the obvious that the market is unpredictable, and that experts are human beings too.

However, it does serve well as the proverbial "head on the pike" for anyone who claims they can speculate with clarity, especially if they're willing to "share that wealth" with you if you pitch in your share of the investment money.

[katwoman]

And let me state the obvious.....those predictions were pre-9/11.

Living close to O'Hare airport I personally saw many businesses in the area go under or get sold as a result of what happened that day.

By all accounts, if we didn't have a 9/11 the market would probably have gone thru the roof as was expected.

Hey, VJW! Harry S. Dent also predicted a similar scenario as your other experts. His book is called The Roaring 2000's.

[jmjj215]

In the book Winning Decisions the author points out that experts are wrong way more than their right due to false confidence. It's in everyone's best interest to make decisions for yourself. The book outlines symptoms of bad decisions and experts had a lot of them

[JBinKC]

Actually the real event that killed the internet bubble was the nonevent of Y2k and the resultant shrinking of money supply to counter it.

Well in the days of the internet craze it was truly speculation I remember days were you just have to publish news of having set up a website and the stock would double in a day!
One stock I shorted that was a suppposed competitor to EBay had a market cap of 500 million dollars and only had 4 listings to sell items.

Regarding financial gurus they are just the pawns in the system that gives you justification of following a trend. They don't spot new trends.

[sweeps]

JB, have you applied for a job as a professional investment manager? It sounds like you're the grandmaster of stock picking.

[JBinKC]

Sweep- Looking at my portfolio recently I wouldn't say that is the case but when you tend to favor high beta stuff you have to prepare for some volatility.
I can attest that the market conditions are bad. Blowout earnings are greeted by selling pressure.


I spend well over 40 hours a week managing my stuff and sacrificed a conventional career so you can say its a full time job. Regarding a professional money manager job, those jobs are very competitive you either need the right education or an inside track for those very highly paid jobs many of them 7 figures a year.

[VJW]

Originally Posted by katwoman

By all accounts, if we didn't have a 9/11 the market would probably have gone thru the roof as was expected.

Actually, it wouldn’t have. The national economy officially entered recession five months prior to 9/11.

True, both Wall Street and the RightWing did predict that the stock markets would skyrocket as a result of the installation of this current administration, but as usual, they got it wrong.

Hey, VJW! Harry S. Dent also predicted a similar scenario as your other experts. His book is called The Roaring 2000's.

Yeah, he was claiming a generational shift that either didn’t happen or he got the timing wrong.

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