Investing In The Bird Flu

[robby]

Since most experts are saying it is only a matter of time before there is another flu panademic (or however you spell that) and since everyone says that investing long term is the way to invest, I was wondering what businesses will benefit when the bird flu does break out?

Wouldn't now be a good time to invest in them?

[sweeps]

Obvious choices are Roche (makers of Tamiflu) and GlaxoSmithKline (makers of Relenza). Both have had a pretty good run in the last couple years.

You could also short chicken producers like Tyson. For that matter, you could probably short the S&P500 because the whole market would probably take a big hit.

[MoneyHoney]

Predicting pandemics can be a tricky business. Sometimes the experts get it wrong. The swine flu scare of the 1970s is a case in point. The government instituted a massive vaccination campaign. The end result: 25 people in the U.S. died from adverse reactions to the flu vaccine - more than from the flu itself.

[Crystallas]

Originally Posted by MoneyHoney

Predicting pandemics can be a tricky business. Sometimes the experts get it wrong. The swine flu scare of the 1970s is a case in point. The government instituted a massive vaccination campaign. The end result: 25 people in the U.S. died from adverse reactions to the flu vaccine - more than from the flu itself.

Some people made some good money on that massive vaccination. Which is what I think the OP is getting at.

You can definately buy into some of these companies and sell off while strong. Its definately a decent strategy, but nothing is ever granted.

[robby]

So do you think it would be a good idea to short Tyson or the entire S&P 500 when the first grouping of human to human transmissions are announced or would it be too late then to take advantage of this?

I also am wondering how ethically responsible it is to do something like this. Is it wrong to make money off of a tragedy like this? Part of me thinks that it is really immoral of me to even ask this questions, but another side of me says there is nothing that I can do to stop this from happening and a lot of people are going to make money, so should I just sit by and not participate? Any thoughts on this?

[lucasrd]

It's not wrong to make money off of it...

It is quite speculative though....

[JBinKC]

I think going short the stock market would be just an easy solution as trying to cherry pick the few winners assuming the transmission of the flu is human to human.