What is the next big thing?

[sweeps]

So we've blown through tech stocks, small caps, emerging markets, and real estate. And now the precious metals bubble is about to pop. What do you think is the next big thing? Would love to hear your ideas.

[Haku]

I dunno, but for the sake of a light-hearted conversation, my guess-- and I completely admit that I may as well have been blind-folded and handed a fuzzy-ended cord and a pin stuck on one end-- is Oil. Energy, I think, is still going to ride just a tad bit longer.

I mean, let's face it here: We here in the United States still have it pretty good in terms of gas prices, and there's no rule that says it can't go higher... perhaps as high as $5/gallon. Heck, some countries are already paying that amount, and they're scoffing at us Yanks for belly-aching.

I also read an informal survey somewhere that 5$/gallon is where the majority will draw the line before they do something radical like... consider alternative fuel source, shave their heads, or heaven forbid, stop driving their SUVs.

Also, what about the Dollar? I mean, it's been fairly undervalued so far, so how do you guys think the forex will perform in the near future?

Let's see. Last I heard, International market has been taking a serious beating recently, but that's for the day-traders to worry about. Overall though, I think that will continue to increase as emerging consumer bases such as China continue to balloon out.

Right, wrong, or just plain wacky, what do you guys think?

[pyotr]

I'm focused on services and products for the graying baby-boomers and secondarily on the echo-boomers. Also the developing populations of India and China. Overall I'm thinking of "green" products and services to off-set the horribly escalating waste/pollution/greenhouse gases assuming ongoing population and consumer booms in this area of the world. I think companies trying to harvest wind-power (Bergey Wind Power, GE, etc.) , trying to improve recycling (WMI), fine-tuning nuclear reactors (Duke Power) are good bets. I also like companies researching better/improved flash memory as I think this is going to be the ultimate core technology to a variety of major companies' killer apps (Apple, Sandisk, Kingston, toshiba, Lexar). I also like companies investigating improved high-capacity batteries, fuel-cells (improved Lithium technologies). In terms of the graying boomers, you have to think healthcare so I'd hold onto your Pfizer, EliLilly, JNJ, Medtronics, and other big-time health/pharm stocks until their health problems boom in the next 10-20yrs.

I think hydrogen power is a big gamble but if you're a gambler this play could pay off big but only after 20-30yrs. I think precious metals and oil and car companies are all cyclical and big speculations/gambles over the long run.

I think Soft-drink companies and junk-food companies (McDonalds, PepsiCo, KO, etc.) are going downhill over the next few decades. I think companies like WMT and Target will be there with solid profits throughout the next decades. I'm hoping and waiting for ALDI to go public.

[Haku]

I like the way you think, pyotr.

The only thing I would personally disagree on, and please understand that it's just for the sake of having a conversation , but I would not bet on Hydrogen. It looks good on paper, but that's about as far as it goes.

In practical terms, mass-production and refinement process is still purely in the research stage. Then, short of the asphalt we drive on, the entire transportation system (from the car to the gas station) would have to be completely revamped. Not to mention that if any of this comes even close to reality, we are talking about changing the global balance of power and as well as the way we think "energy". (That is assuming, of course, that we are deriving the Hydrogen from water, not fossil fuel that our esteemed President has actually proposed.)

But that is admittedly a minor nit-pick.

[PRICEPLUS]

Anything to do with Gerontology. Aging baby boomers need much and will expect much in order to maintain quality of life!

[jmjj215]

Health care

[sweeps]

I was thinking along the same lines. Pharmaceuticals. Medical Devices. Biotech. All of these have been in kind of a slump lately too.

I'm also thinking that the alternative fuel thing is going to die down for a while. There's probably a winner in their somewhere (ethanol, hydrogen, fuel cell, etc.), but there's a lot of questionable technology too.

A few other ideas... Not necessarily endorsing them, just throwing out for discussion:
- Recreational space travel
- Handheld online gaming
- Education technology
- Gambling/lottery industry
- RFID applications
- Home energy-saving devices (just read in Business 2.0 about a new device that determines peak and off-peak electricity periods. During peak hours, a massive battery kicks in to power your home. It recharges the battery during off-peak hours.)

[jmjj215]

Hasn't gambling been on a tear recently?

[Russell]

With the baby-boomers retiring I think in the US healthcare should be big, possibly food and recreation in some capacity or another too.

[flash]

Don't forget that with health care and pharmaceuticals, there is always a risk factor. Do your research, don't bet on it just because it's new and improved. The changes in the US health care are having an impact on pharm, and they are responding, but...before you place your bet, know your horse, not just it's name...

[emptyspaces]

i think oil is the next big thing. i just started investing in oil wells.

and i think the dollar will drop another 20% over the next 2 yrs, so foreign markets and precious metals will do well.

[JBinKC]

Pockets of technology that hopefully won't quickly succumb to commoditization I like gerontology, nanotechnology and superconductors best. Fischer-Tropsch generated energy, commodties in general, and the emerging markets. I also continue to like things that capitalizes the fringe society fascist trends of our government and oddly enough global warming.

The key to success though will probably stay the same though irregardless what they do. It really depends upon spotting a company with a decent valuation, strong balance sheet coupled with a trend of strong earnings momentum before the crowd does.

[Crystallas]

Energy efficiency companies will be the next big thing. Companies that research alternate and renewable energies, aswell as taking existing energies and applying them to old technologies. Similar to what we saw in the early 80s and polymer development companies. Those polymer companies became incorperated into every industry, and now with another year of panic from current energy problems, the efficiency will become the largest factor in the world to maintain growth on all levels.
My personal favorite company in the energy sector is Electric City(ELC.) Based in IL where there are more power plants per density in the world. But they are also being delisted to protect them from takeover on June 11th. Traditionally delisted stocks are very risky. But this is just one example of many companies that are going to atleast double their demands by the end of the year. These companies wont stop growing

Nanotech is trouble right now. But you can make some great gains on short term investments. Releasing products that make it to the main level will drive prices up, but I dont see them being very stable with the activists that are pushing for anti-nanotech research. As soon as investors become generally numb to these eviromentalists, I'll change my stance.

Healthcare is allways good. There is allways a new treatment that replaces an old one, and its all about jumping the trends. But it wont be the next big thing.

Oil is the old big thing. The only way that Oil will be the aggresive investment that it was in the past is if 2 things happen. Troops are near completely pulled out of the middle east(and not to deploy elsewhere) to allow for more use of the oil being pumped out of the Military Reserves for other than military. And if ethanol becomes the official standard of the US, as it is in Brazil. Green fuels dont need Gasoline or Diesel to work in cars, but gasoline stabilizes ethanol for efficiency with running and starting all vehicles. Because of the requirements for modern vehicles to run ethanol(basically less aluminum and a few other modifications) gasoline wont be eliminated. Allowing for the demands to relax, but keeping shares at an afordable price to plan better buy-ins and sells to capitalize on a much larger gain. It will become a great way to stabilize momentum in the long run. There will be years where crops such as corn and bred-for ethanol greens will be poor(drought, poor planning, ect) which also will be very good for oil investors.

You can arguably say that recreationals will be the next big thing aswell. Such as cruise ship companies, theme parks, water parks ect. In times where people fear driving across country, and now when security issues have been improved a great deal. The common person will begin to travel more. Including short distances to be a part of a members club ect. Florida seeing some very nasty hurricane seasons will only push companies to build more tourism in other parts of the world. Features that are being expanded apon are these massive indoor skii slopes, smaller, more portable thrill rides, legalization of marijuana becomming more common (legally being able to capitalize on, and eventually regulated on some level in certain parts,) increased high density housing creating more HOT spots locally that are owned by larger companies, movie theater technology growing and expanding to 3D displays on a larger level. Its basically the mid-90s for business class, except it will become appetising on a much broader level. Just consider what these companies want to do now to get people off their couches and off their computers. There are some great ideas that will make it very interesting to transend back to reality from the virtual world.

Everyone has their own grasp on the market and what they think will happen. These comments are just from my own point of view.

[VJW]

One of the things that will happen sooner rather than later is that there will be a breakthrough in the manufacturing of solar cells which will allow them to be cheap enough for a lot of people to be able to afford to put them on their roofs to substantially or completely eliminate the utility.

The other thing that will happen sooner than later is that there will be a breakthrough in battery technology that will at least make hybrid vehicles all electric except for freeway speeds with a greatly expanded range, or even all electrics will be feasible.

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[jmjj215]

Originally Posted by VJW

One of the things that will happen sooner rather than later is that there will be a breakthrough in the manufacturing of solar cells which will allow them to be cheap enough for a lot of people to be able to afford to put them on their roofs to substantially or completely eliminate the utility.

The other thing that will happen sooner than later is that there will be a breakthrough in battery technology that will at least make hybrid vehicles all electric except for freeway speeds with a greatly expanded range, or even all electrics will be feasible.

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Now that will be cool.

[Crystallas]

Solar tech is there and very cheap... but the problem is most of the solar products are made by divisions of oil companies. We all know how honest they are about making a buck.

Power storage technology is very good, and the tech is there for us to make the most out of it. The problem is that nobody wants to deal with the companies that patent these new inovations and ask for a lot to use their ideas. This is where power efficiency companies come in, and play a barter tool for both mediums. But yes, someone down the line will have an industry standard that will revolutionize and be a big commodity on the markets.

[VJW]

Originally Posted by jmjj215

Now that will be cool.

Yep.

Of course, the trick is to figure out which companies to invest in.

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[VJW]

Originally Posted by Crystallas

Solar tech is there and very cheap... but the problem is most of the solar products are made by divisions of oil companies. We all know how honest they are about making a buck.

Exactly. That’s what has been holding back any breakthroughs for a number of years. They bought up all the major solar cell companies. However, I think we will soon see a breakthrough from independent research that has no interest in being bought out by big oil.

Power storage technology is very good, and the tech is there for us to make the most out of it. The problem is that nobody wants to deal with the companies that patent these new inovations and ask for a lot to use their ideas.

No, they have quite obviously been intentionally slow-walking their technology. Just look how ‘AA’ NiMH battery capacity went from 1000mAh to 1200mAh to 1400mAh to 1600mAh to 1800mAh to 2000mAh to 2200mAh and onward, in such uniform steps. Technological advances don’t happen with that kind of uniformity.

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[Crystallas]

Thats more so because underwriters takes forever to certify new standards. They are worse than the FDA. Also because almost all retailers wont sell pre-certs because of the whole mess with the batterys that started that fire at a radioshack warehouse some 20 years ago.

Think of it this way. If potable energy moved to quick, then companies would end up with to many old products. That wont make enviromentalists happy, and the investor will get pretty frustrated.

[VJW]

Originally Posted by Crystallas

Think of it this way. If potable energy moved to quick, then companies would end up with to many old products. That wont make enviromentalists happy, and the investor will get pretty frustrated.

Ah, that’s my point. Corporate America is slow-walking the technology to line their own pockets, stifling competition, and not utilizing smart management techniques like ‘just in time inventories’. That’s not a good deal for consumers, it’s a negative for the environment, and it’s inefficient.

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