Most break in's are crimes of opportunity. A door or a window left open especially in times of hot summer weather. I think if you take the proper precautions, use fake signs if you want, keep windows and doors securely locked etc., it can only help.
A sophisticated burglar will look at your phone junction box and see if you actually have an alarm system. Most people do not lock the phone junction box on there house so access is very simple. (Even with a lock bolt cutters are no match.) If no alarm system they just help themselves. My junction box is locked but even if the bad guy gained access to it it would still not defeat the alarm even if the wires were cut. Cell backup is a nice feature that works very well.
But the stats say that most break in's are un-sophisticated people that are looking for an easy mark. Open window/door and they look for things that are easily sold. If you live in a neighborhood that is very high end and you have things that are really worth stealing like jewelry, guns, or high end stereo gear and TV's you most likely will have an alarm system anyway. It just makes sense and it not like you cannot afford it right?
My windows and doors are never left open because they basically are never opened anyway except to clean or get in and out of the house. Air conditioning takes care of that.
With insurance discounts though, as was mentioned before, they almost pay for themselves.
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