do you think we will have another down turn in stocks?

Goldy1 · #1 (**permalink**) 09-22-2009, 09:42 PM

I was kinda down about my portfolio going south around oct 08 and the following months.
I stayed the course. I think I might have traded about 10% of my stocks into bond type investments only but before it really bad. I wanted to wait it out and I saw some returns, yes, but I am not where I was.

I have about (who knows exactly) 1 or 2 years EF in the bank. However, the job situation for me and dh is very unstable. (Go Michigan)

I was thinking of trading more of my portfolio out of stocks.
(401K and ira is all I have)

Like2Plan · #2 (**permalink**) 09-23-2009, 05:27 AM

Yes, I think we will have a downturn in the market. It is a normal part of the cyclic nature of the market. I would be willing to bet there will be profit takers and folks who are doing some general housekeeping in their portfolios before the end of the year. How deep will the valley be--no idea.

The key is timing. You can not predict or time the market. With that in mind, take a look at when you need to use your money and your long term strategies.

disneysteve · #3 (**permalink**) 09-23-2009, 06:05 AM

Of course there will be another downturn. I guarantee it. Depending on your time horizon, there will several downturns. I hope to retire in about 18 years. I'm sure I'll see at least a couple of significant drops during that time.

Broken Arrow · #4 (**permalink**) 09-23-2009, 07:03 AM

Well, the usual caveat here is that you can't time the market.

However, I think it's perfectly fine to "rebalance" your portfolio to match your true risk tolerance. In which case, feel free to convert more stocks into bonds, but once that's figured out, I would recommend to stick to it.

In my own asset allocation, I've mostly stuck to a passive, diversified mutual funds. I know I've spent a lot of time talking about trying to time the market, but I only attempt to trade with a small portion of my money.

EEinNJ · #5 (**permalink**) 09-23-2009, 08:58 AM

Goldy, you're question suggests that you're considering making trading decisions based on emotion (Feeling "kinda down"). If you do, you will lose every time.

It hurts to watch your portfolio in a bear market, and the last couple of times I've gone through it, I thought "This is rigged, this is for suckers" but I held on and things came back. The question I ask myself, and maybe you should, is, "Is the risk I'm taking comfortable, and do the returns justify it?"

The other question is, how much do you need, and how soon do you need it? If you need it soon, and can't risk another 20% drop, then you shouldn't be in stocks.

feh · #6 (**permalink**) 09-23-2009, 09:35 AM

First question you need to answer - what is your time frame for needing this money.

If it's at least a couple years, I'd suggest keeping it invested in stocks.

kork13 · #7 (**permalink**) 09-23-2009, 03:20 PM

I think what will be interesting is to see how stocks do over the winter holidays. Normally, the increase in consumer spending buoy's the market. However, my gut says we're heading toward another moderate dip... But when and how far, obviously, are unknown. We'll have to wait and see....

devid fox · #8 (**permalink**) 09-24-2009, 09:38 AM

About a stock downtown,well actually the world economy is trying to cope up with the disaster that it faced,and in the mean time we all saw stock down-falls very frequently.But now things are changing,as far as my point of view,we do stand a 50-50 chance to face another fall,although no one can predict future without god himself.

Broken Arrow · #9 (**permalink**) 09-24-2009, 11:07 AM

The G20 has just convened to discuss ways to reduce the global government subsidies without causing a system crash. We should find out soon enough what their plans are, and then we can proceed to speculate how well that may or may not work out.

linkteam1C · #10 (**permalink**) 10-08-2009, 01:12 AM

There are many reasons leading us to this situation. In my opinion, the three most important factors are: misguided and vague standards, time-to-market pressures and, above all,

A good understanding of the subject matter or the access to a specialist is an important element in technical way. It is a quality issue that I don’t believe too many people in the business would dispute.

If you're the kind of intelligent entrepreneur who's been searching for simple and fast shortcuts to a reliable (and impressively large) monthly income then you have to accept that there are ups and down in every business.

kenyantykoon · #11 (**permalink**) 10-08-2009, 01:21 AM

a downturn is normal and there is nothing that anyone can do about it. to quote benjamin graham in the intelligent investor "all bull markets must end badly"

jasonnoguchi · #12 (**permalink**) 10-08-2009, 06:42 PM

No more intermediate downturn of more than 20% for the next couple of years on a monthly basis. The world economy is already well into recovery and the recession is far behind us. Enjoy the rally. This is the only time to make the money. If you wait til you are "convinced" by the market, then you are repeating your mistake back in 2007.

LuxLiving · #13 (**permalink**) 10-10-2009, 12:50 PM

It goes up and it goes down.

To help yourself realize this deep in your gut you can do what I did - for several years I religiously recorded my portfolios balance daily, plus a break out on each individual investment. Daily - it went up and it went down. That's what it does. Sometimes it goes up longer than it goes down and vice versa. After a while of recording it you get it - seriously. And if you're like me you don't take it so personally or emotionally any more.

To be in the game you have to understand and be willing to cope w/those dips & rejoice with the rises. Length of time till need to withdraw money is the key to deciding how to proceed.

Many folks (who me?) are rubbing our hands and thinking it is time to buy 'straw hats in the winter-time!'

maat55 · #14 (**permalink**) 10-10-2009, 02:38 PM

I pulled 70% out Sept. 1st. I fear a new commercial real estate bubble coming and unrealistic optimism in the market today. I will likely stay out for about six months.

I'm no expert, I just have faith in some others who have been right so far, but noone really knows.

disneysteve · #15 (**permalink**) 10-10-2009, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by maat55

I pulled 70% out Sept. 1st. I fear a new commercial real estate bubble coming and unrealistic optimism in the market today. I will likely stay out for about six months.

What will make you decide to get back into the market? How can you say now that it will likely be 6 months?

LuxLiving · #16 (**permalink**) 10-10-2009, 04:54 PM

I can never decide the 'right' time to get out, or the 'right' time to get back in, which is why I don't try to do market timing.

disneysteve · #17 (**permalink**) 10-10-2009, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LuxLiving

I can never decide the 'right' time to get out, or the 'right' time to get back in, which is why I don't try to do market timing.

Neither can anybody else. That's why nobody should try.

LuxLiving · #18 (**permalink**) 10-10-2009, 05:30 PM

I'm one of those ol'fashioned Dollar Cost Averagers, Disneysteve, for exactly that reason.

disneysteve · #19 (**permalink**) 10-10-2009, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LuxLiving

I'm one of those ol'fashioned Dollar Cost Averagers, Disneysteve, for exactly that reason.

Me too.

jasonnoguchi · #20 (**permalink**) 10-10-2009, 06:15 PM

One thing's for sure, if I had held on 2 years through the worst recession in about a hundred years, I am sure as hell not about to bail out now when its all over!