15 minute test predicts Divorce

[snafu]

A math professor at Oxford perfected a model to calculate whether a relationship will succeed. After 12 years studying 700 couples. he predicted their divorce rate with 94% accuracy. Are you brave enough to subject your relationship to the test?

First, decide on a topic that is a consistent source of trouble between you. Sit opposite your mate, video tape the conversation as you talk about that contentious issue for 15 minutes. Both of you are to talk the entire 15 minutes about the same topic like money or sex, or in-laws or who works harder or any topic you and your partner had been at loggerheads for some time.

Watch your tape. Give yourself points every time you demonstrate these responses:

Affection +4 Belligerence -2
Humor +4 Defensiveness -2
Joy +4 Stonewalling -2
Agreeing +4 Anger -1
Interest +2 Domineering -1
Contempt -4 Sadness -1
Disgust -3 Whining -1

The partner who shows affection, humor or happiness as they talk is given maximum points. Those who display contempt or belligerence receive minimum points. If the discussion is highly charged and emptional with one of the partners consistently negative, divorce will be the end result.

[Broken Arrow]

So... this has a predictive rate of 94%?

I just have a hard time believing that human interactions can be accurately quantified and calculated through elementary math.

And once you tally up the numbers, what do the ranges mean? Or is that subject to interpretation?

Is there a link to the source of this research paper we can look at?

Could the system be "gamed" now that the mathematical model is known?

How many points do I lose for being skeptical in this response? Will we still be together after this?

Seriously though, I'd love to say that there is an accurate way to predict the success rate of a marriage. Honest, I would. However, the concept of quantifying human behavior isn't new, and there's a reason why they are not accepted in mainstream psychology.... I don't think it actually works. In fact, from what I've heard, the results of such attempts are more disastrous than anything.

But in all fairness, the qualities listed there isn't a bad one to keep in mind. Do I at least recover two points for half-agreeing?

[tulsa_sr5]

I can think of a couple topics my ex-wife and discussed that could have been scored by that system, it would have been accurate in our case.

[Joan.of.the.Arch]

Well, I couldn't take the test because I can't think of "a topic that is a consistent source of trouble between you, " and certainly not "any topic you and your partner had been at loggerheads for some time."

[snafu]

As this model was periodically repeated a trend emerged. Obviously a negative trend indicated a worsening relationship. Can you imagine the body language that would be exhibited?


The 1st category identified was 'validating,' calm, intimate, back each other up, and share a companionable relationship.
A second group was deemed 'avoiders,' who do their best to sidestep confrontation and conflict. They only respond positively to their partner.

The 'volatile' couple are passionate, have heated arguments, mix stable and unstable and tend to be unhappy more than not.
The 'hostile' category has one partner who will not talk about an issue, the other agrees and there is no communication. The 'hostile-detached' couple has one wanting to argue, the other is not interested in discussing the issue.

[ceejay74]

There was a similar test mentioned in the book "Blink"...I wonder if it was the same guy, because the one thing he said was, if there was contempt between the couples, it was the No. 1 predictor of divorce, and I see this test subtracts the most points for "contempt."

[whitestripe]

it's commonsense really... you don't have to make up a point system and do mathematical equations to realise that if you can't have a constructive debate about something without disrespecting the opponent then it's quite obvious there needs to be some relationship work.