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Old 05-11-2006, 12:19 PM
sweeps sweeps is offline
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Default Re: Which would you choose?

There's no "right" answer. It all depends on your risk tolerance. But one interesting thing that crops up with this pair of questions is that people are much more willing to take on extra risk to avoid a loss than they would to realize a gain.

I played with the numbers a bit because I know this is a particularly risk-averse audience. But in a classic situation, you're given the following 2 scenarios :

1. You have a choice between (a) a guaranteed WIN of $100,000 or (b) a 10% chance of winning $1,000,000. Which would you choose?
2. You have a choice between (a) a guaranteed LOSS of $100,000 or (b) a 10% chance of losing $1,000,000 (in other words, a 90% chance of losing nothing). Which would you choose?

In #1, most people will choose a. In #2, most people will choose b. This is irrational, but it happens because of an overwhelming aversion to loss. Successful investors (and poker players by the way) learn to overcome this instinct.

EDIT: By the way, you can adjust the numbers to make it more realistic for your own situation... for example, a guaranteed $1,000 vs. 10% chance at $10,000, etc.
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