Broken Arrow,
I only stimulate these conversations also for conversation's sake and it would be totally wrong for me to not admit that you, Sweeps, et al. have a bonafide legitimate point.
And everytime I start to think. . .gee. . .maybe I should just take my profit now. . .there's a reason emerging for me to stay invested.
I have to go back to my original premise - what's my asset allocation.
It's not like I have 100% invested in oil, gold, silver or grain. It's only 33% of my portfolio and 25 years away from retirement.
Sure. . .there could be a short term crash of oil. Just last year the IEA said for the next 20 years, about $55-65/barrel is right for oil, except in certain global crises (Hurricanes, wars, etc.) Look at where it's at now. So either:
a. The IEA was talking out it's rumpus
or
b. Something is askew
That being said, I don't take a profit because frankly, if I sell off 33% of my silver. . .where do I stuff it? REIT's or financials as far as I can tell. . .not sure if I should do that. Bonds? Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, haaaaa. With the Fed lowering the interest rate to -5%? Bonds are too risky now.
Now. . .what could sustain oil at $100+/barrel? Well, we are back to the problem that America has been printing "funny money" since Nixon.
It now costs $.015 to make $.01 because of steel costs. You/we all may just kind of joke about this but this is a real problem, not being on any standard/having fiat currency.
The IEA may have not taken this into account when it issued it's prediction.
Years ago, they talked about "oil dollars", that $1.00 would stand for cashing in an oz. of oil let's say. It wasn't a bad idea as far as I can see because oil is a universal currency that carries intrinisic value. Just saying, "A dollar has the full backing of the US Gov't". . .well, that and 3 oz. of oil can buy you a cup of coffee.
Listen. . .to let you all know. . .and I am serious about this. . .I have been happy with my portfolio. My portfolio really seems to zig when the other zags. But as DisneySteve has pointed out. . .Vanguard's Total Bond Index returned 7.7% last year. . .while stocks fell. . .maybe for the risk incurred, that's better zag than my commodity zag.
I don't know.