Jim,
I hadn't thought about Roth IRA fees entering the equation. Good point.
Peak earning years are generally 35 to 55. . .so I am not sure we can make too much judgement on what the earning potential of this couple is. One is a teacher - that says to me that there will be a pension 25-30 years down the road, much earlier than 65 y.o. I think pensions are taxed as income so it's why my gut went with the Roth.
I know you mean well by punching the numbers but I think you are overwhelming him here.
I think you told me that a Roth has a potential for prinicipal withdrawal and there's a good chance they'll need that for something someday (house, medical bills, college, home improvement). The 401(k) is entirely hands off.
BTW, I'm the one with commodities - no biggie. You and Steve are the CEO guys

My silver recoverd like .25% today, LOL.